SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[Snaveba]

Well ####. I love John Prine. Sadly I think he only has one lung after fighting cancer. 
 

we saw him a coupe months ago picking up a to go order from Mama Mia’s

sorry you had to edit my language. I was  just a bit taken aback 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Snaveba

[Raoul]

Damn. Just damn.

[gregintenn]

If your parachute didn’t open, but your corpse tests positive for Corona, guess what gets the blame.

[Chucktshoes]

12 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

If your parachute didn’t open, but your corpse tests positive for Corona, guess what gets the blame.

If folks were testing positive for COVID-19 then impacting the earth at terminal velocity, you would have a point. When they test positive and then end up in the hospital with or die from severe respiratory distress, not so much. 

[MacGyver]

If it’s any indication of how seriously people should take this - John Prine and Joe Diffie are good examples.

I don’t know that either of them are particularly rich - but they’re both certainly famous.

Rich and famous folks get treated differently. They have other options that aren’t available to you and me.

The fact that they’re dying from this ought to be a clue that everything is broken.

Man, I hope John Prine pulls through.  He’s brought me a lot of joy through the years. I’ve seen him at Baja Burrito and other places around town over the years. He always seemed to have a smile or kind word for folks who were wondering if that was John Prine.

[Raoul]

48 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

If it’s any indication of how seriously people should take this - John Prine and Joe Diffie are good examples.

I don’t know that either of them are particularly rich - but they’re both certainly famous.

Rich and famous folks get treated differently. They have other options that aren’t available to you and me.

The fact that they’re dying from this ought to be a clue that everything is broken.

Man, I hope John Prine pulls through.  He’s brought me a lot of joy through the years. I’ve seen him at Baja Burrito and other places around town over the years. He always seemed to have a smile or kind word for folks who were wondering if that was John Prine.

Agreed. He's a very lo key unassuming sort. I've been a fan since his first album. 

[Oh Shoot]

12 hours ago, Snaveba said:

 

The US statistical death rate is 1.75% or almost 2 per hundred.

 

Maybe you mean of corona positive tested people or something?

We'll never know the true fatality rate of infected people overall, unless every person in the US is specific antibody tested AFTER this strain is eradicated. Failing that, it's going to be a constant statistical best guess based on whatever model you like best, just like the yearly influenza "stats" but with even much less real data.

The only thing pretty certain right now is the actual death rate per the entire US population period, which right now is about 8 per million.

Newest "best practices we're likely to achieve" scenario opined by Fauci and echoed by Frump today is 100,000 (or more) dead in US. Which would be more like 300 per million.

- OS

Edited March 30, 2020 by Oh Shoot

[Snaveba]

7 minutes ago, Oh Shoot said:

The only thing pretty certain right now is the actual death rate per the entire US population period, which right now is about 8 per million.

You can’t assume a death rate as compared to the entire population. That would mean you are assuming the number of deaths will not increase and everyone  contract the virus.

You can only use deaths as compared to known infected, which is 1.75 per 100. This number will change once a good antibody test is used to determine the true number of infected (after the fact) and the actual mortality percentage will be much less than 1.75%  

I completely agree that the actual current  death percentage is likely much lower, by even as much as an order of magnitude (1.75 per 1000)

However to be an order of magnitude less would mean that of the 130,000 known positive cases, there are 1.17 million undocumented cases in the us. This could be possible, but probably at this point not much more. 
 

3% of the US population is 10.2 million. 

[Oh Shoot]

1 minute ago, Snaveba said:

3% of the US population is 10.2 million. 

Yah, I caught that, misplaced digits, edited while you were posting I guess.

[Snaveba]

14 minutes ago, Oh Shoot said:

Yah, I caught that, misplaced digits, edited while you were posting I guess.

That makes more sense 

[Oh Shoot]

19 minutes ago, Snaveba said:

You can’t assume a death rate as compared to the entire population. That would mean you are assuming the number of deaths will not increase and everyone  contract the virus.

Nope, not a death "rate", just total compared to whole population, just a simple actuarial, same as number of gun owners, women, whatever.

Totally unhelpful in assessing risk  or mediation in any given smaller geographical sample, including countries of different sizes where x millions are confined to smaller land areas, etc.  but just another finger on the pulse so to speak.

Anyway you look at it, if the 100K estimate is anywhere in the ballpark, overall we're look about about 50x more dead folks than now.

Interesting comparisons here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

- OS

[Moped]

11 hours ago, Oh Shoot said:

Newest "best practices we're likely to achieve" scenario opined by Fauci and echoed by Frump today is 100,000 (or more) dead in US. Which would be more like 300 per million.

- OS

I don't really believe that's the best scenario.  I think they are actually preparing us for worst case here.  Then when it comes in lower, they can tell us how good the system actually worked. 

Personally, I think once you get out of the big cities, the death rate will not be anywhere near as bad.  If we triple Knoxville's hosiptal rate (now at 7) in the next three weeks, we will be looking pretty good.

[Oh Shoot]

4 hours ago, Moped said:

..  If we triple Knoxville's hosiptal rate (now at 7) in the next three weeks, we will be looking pretty good.

Why are you thinking in terms of three weeks?

- OS

[Moped]

6 minutes ago, Oh Shoot said:

Why are you thinking in terms of three weeks?

- OS

Like all Americans, short attention span.  No way they will keep everyone quarantined longer than two weeks. Italy is facing riots and civil unrest. after 4 weeks. We don't have that much patience.

[Oh Shoot]

5 minutes ago, Moped said:

Like all Americans, short attention span.  No way they will keep everyone quarantined longer than two weeks. Italy is facing riots and civil unrest. after 4 weeks. We don't have that much patience.

I know. But seems we have at least a year more to go to see if this 100K estimate is accurate.

- OS

[TripleGGG]

And this is why I don't trust the government to take care of anything. They just now decided this was a good idea. 

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s038-travel-advisory.html

[Erik88]

On 3/24/2020 at 8:53 AM, Erik88 said:

I'm considered essential. I got 1 day of HR orientation. They gave me a laptop and sent me home after saying they would "train me the best they can"... And I can't even log into the laptop they gave me. At least I'm getting paid though. 

I'm on day 6 of employment and finally got my computer working.  Also, I'm happy to report we put our house on the market Friday and had a full price offer accepted within 24 hours. We then disinfected anything people may have touched. 

I'm honestly shocked people are still buying houses but I guess the rates are too good for some to pass up..

[Alleycat72]

2 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

I'm on day 6 of employment and finally got my computer working.  Also, I'm happy to report we put our house on the market Friday and had a full price offer accepted within 24 hours. We then disinfected anything people may have touched. 

I'm honestly shocked people are still buying houses but I guess the rates are too good for some to pass up..

I'm throwing a bunch of money in the stocks. A buddy dropped over 100k in a week ago. He's made a bit, but that and real estate is all he does. 

[gregintenn]

Just heard on the radio that the governor is about to announce a state wide shutdown of nonessential businesses. 
 

I also heard him say earlier today he wouldn’t.

We will see I guess.

[Erik88]

3 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

Just heard on the radio that the governor is about to announce a state wide shutdown of nonessential businesses. 
 

I also heard him say earlier today he wouldn’t.

We will see I guess.

I had to go into work earlier today and you would hardly know anything was different. People were out and about everywhere. I'm not advocating for anything in particular but the list of "essential" businesses is too long to have any meaningful impact. Even liquor stores are open. 

[Oh Shoot]

6 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

.... Even liquor stores are open. 

Cut off the booze and there would be riots.

- OS

 

[Oh Shoot]

1 minute ago, Oh Shoot said:

Cut off the booze and there would be riots.

- OS

Erick, ya gave me a ha ha, but I was actually serious.

- OS

[Chucktshoes]

6 minutes ago, Oh Shoot said:

Erick, ya gave me a ha ha, but I was actually serious.

- OS

Just because it’s funny, doesn’t mean it isn’t true. 

[Garufa]

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

I'm on day 6 of employment and finally got my computer working.  Also, I'm happy to report we put our house on the market Friday and had a full price offer accepted within 24 hours. We then disinfected anything people may have touched. 

I'm honestly shocked people are still buying houses but I guess the rates are too good for some to pass up..

Probably somebody from New York.  I imagine there’s more now than ever trying to get out.

[MacGyver]

6 minutes ago, Garufa said:

Probably somebody from New York.  I imagine there’s more now than ever trying to get out.

Nashville is full.  They’ve got to go somewhere.