SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[jgradyc]

Some general comments...

Costco, Walmart, and other businesses are now opening one hour early one day a week to seniors only. This is great for seniors because shelves will be restocked overnight and the crowds will be less. Check their websites or the stores for hours. I think Costco is Thursday at 9AM... not sure. Us seniors can shop for neighbors or other family members.

What group is now essential to protect? Truckers. We're protecting medical professionals, but truckers move the goods. If this spreads among truckers, we have a very serious problem.

People are ignoring the safer at home order. It started well on Monday, but Thursday I went to Beaman Park for my normal run, expecting the remote park to be empty as usual, but the crowd was the biggest I have ever seen. The parking lot was filled with parents who would rather risk a deadly disease than spend one more day inside with their 6-year-olds. Little human petri dishes were running around everywhere. I left without getting out of the car.

The testing system is overwhelmed. My training partner tested Friday Mar 20 in the morning and STILL doesn't have test results back. Since she flew one of the last flights back from Europe and other crew members have tested positive, she very likely has the disease. She has subsequently recovered with only strong flu symptoms. 

The best approach now is to pretend you have the disease and dress accordingly if you must go out. I'm sure most of us have masks and gloves and some type of portable disinfectant. Since I do rental repairs, I had all this stuff in my van already. 

EDITED TO ADD

Does anyone know if there has been a recent increase in robbery/burglary? I'm curious to see if we need to urge our normally clueless friends to get their noses out of their phones and be more vigilant.

Edited March 27, 2020 by jgradyc

[PoofNoEyeBrows]

[Erik88]

On a positive note, I've seen more people and kids outside the past few days than I have seen in the last 5 years combined. My neighbors are outside checking on one another but mostly keeping a safe distance. Kids are out playing instead of being glued to the TV's. I've seen parents slowly drive around with their kids in the bed of their truck. They are getting creative on entertainment. 

 

[TGO David]

8 hours ago, MacGyver said:

As an old friend taught me a long time ago, “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.”

We've still got a lot of unknowns here - and they’ll likely not be known until we’ll after this current crisis is done.

 

I had a statistics professor once tell my class, "Of course models aren't exact.  They aren't crystal balls.  That's why they are called models and not guarantees."

Man I can't tell you how many times those words have rang in my ears the last month as I've watched the facts and data do their own things.

[E4 No More]

22 minutes ago, TGO David said:

I had a statistics professor once tell my class, "Of course models aren't exact.  They aren't crystal balls.  That's why they are called models and not guarantees."

For the most part, models are computer-generated predictions and thus follows the "Junk in; junk out" rule of computing. This is the source of my skepticism of the whole human-caused climate change model - particularly since it was discovered that the modelers had an agenda. In a manner it distresses me that scientists have come to rely on computer models so much. While I get that the bigger things absolutely require massive computer analysis it also lends itself to faulty modeling, and that's where common sense must prevail. 

[Lumber_Jack]

1 hour ago, TGO David said:

I had a statistics professor once tell my class, "Of course models aren't exact.  They aren't crystal balls.  That's why they are called models and not guarantees."

Man I can't tell you how many times those words have rang in my ears the last month as I've watched the facts and data do their own things.

 

54 minutes ago, E4 No More said:

For the most part, models are computer-generated predictions and thus follows the "Junk in; junk out" rule of computing. This is the source of my skepticism of the whole human-caused climate change model - particularly since it was discovered that the modelers had an agenda. In a manner it distresses me that scientists have come to rely on computer models so much. While I get that the bigger things absolutely require massive computer analysis it also lends itself to faulty modeling, and that's where common sense must prevail. 

E4 these are my thoughts as well.  Anytime someone tells me "the models predict" I immediately think "what were the parameters used to run the model". Just like climate change models using historic C02 levels that aren't facts but broad guesses to then run a prediction is like throwing darts at a wall.  

In the forest industry we've used growth models for years and with some species and climates it works well, but with others its so wildly wrong that nobody uses them anymore.  

[E4 No More]

37 minutes ago, Lumber_Jack said:

 

E4 these are my thoughts as well.  Anytime someone tells me "the models predict" I immediately think "what were the parameters used to run the model". Just like climate change models using historic C02 levels that aren't facts but broad guesses to then run a prediction is like throwing darts at a wall.  

In the forest industry we've used growth models for years and with some species and climates it works well, but with others its so wildly wrong that nobody uses them anymore.  

On another note that's pertinent to your industry, if the world was so interested in the levels of CO2 then why don't they promote the planting of trees? Trees eat up a lot of CO2 and return oxygen. It sickens me to see contractors who knock down every tree on their lot to build ____, and then plant a couple of Bradford Pears in replacement. Also, there's a lot of wasted space in huge cloverleafs that could be planted with trees. Once again, the simple solutions remain ignored by the left because it really doesn't fit their agenda.

[gregintenn]

I will admit I was wrong. This is starting to appear to be a much larger problem than I gave it credit for. I should know better than to second guess David and MacGyver.

[Garufa]

Here is an interesting dashboard that maps raw data for Tennessee...,well, maps to the extent possible, but does break down by county and presents overall numbers clearly and concisely.  It is updated daily at 2:30 PM based on TN Department of Health data.

Tennessee State Data Center COVID-19 Dashboard

https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov.html

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Garufa

[MacGyver]

That same friend taught me that, "the best navigators are never completely sure about where they are - but they're always aware of the uncertainty."

Meaning - models are just that - models. We know they're wrong - but they might still be useful.  Problems arise when people point to the models as truth - without knowledge about the uncertainty underlying the assumptions.

Anyway.  Y'all hunker down.

Wash your hands. Stay home if your job will let you. Take the time to enjoy your people.

And, don't forget to take a look around.  You're going to see some of what makes America truly great as people and industries come together to innovate.

[MacGyver]

1 minute ago, Garufa said:

Here is an interesting dashboard that maps raw data for Tennessee.  It is updated daily at 2:30 PM based on TN Department of Health data.

Tennessee State Data Center COVID-19 Dashboard

https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov.html

 

 

Thanks for sharing that.  That's a good dashboard.

[DaveTN]

Wrong thread

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by DaveTN

[Lumber_Jack]

1 hour ago, E4 No More said:

On another note that's pertinent to your industry, if the world was so interested in the levels of CO2 then why don't they promote the planting of trees? Trees eat up a lot of CO2 and return oxygen. It sickens me to see contractors who knock down every tree on their lot to build ____, and then plant a couple of Bradford Pears in replacement. Also, there's a lot of wasted space in huge cloverleafs that could be planted with trees. Once again, the simple solutions remain ignored by the left because it really doesn't fit their agenda.

well those urban trees probably don't account for enough carbon to really contribute.  What we are seeing though is a reforestation of acres across most landscapes.  Agriculture becoming much more efficient has relinquished many acres back to forests.  Another notable factor is that with increased C02 levels we see increased growth rates of not just trees but most plants.  So if the globe is warming, we'll be better equipped to feed folks.

 

Anyways back to pandemic 

[E4 No More]

1 hour ago, Lumber_Jack said:

well those urban trees probably don't account for enough carbon to really contribute.  What we are seeing though is a reforestation of acres across most landscapes.  Agriculture becoming much more efficient has relinquished many acres back to forests.  Another notable factor is that with increased C02 levels we see increased growth rates of not just trees but most plants.  So if the globe is warming, we'll be better equipped to feed folks.

 

Anyways back to pandemic 

You'd think, but I have seen them scrape the trees off an entire hillside to put in apartments on Old Hickory in southern Nashville on a couple of occasions. But like you said, back to the pandemic.

[peejman]

7 hours ago, E4 No More said:

For the most part, models are computer-generated predictions and thus follows the "Junk in; junk out" rule of computing. This is the source of my skepticism of the whole human-caused climate change model - particularly since it was discovered that the modelers had an agenda. In a manner it distresses me that scientists have come to rely on computer models so much. While I get that the bigger things absolutely require massive computer analysis it also lends itself to faulty modeling, and that's where common sense must prevail. 

GIGO as we used to call it. 

Or there's lies, damn lies, and statistics.    

Using numerical models requires a fairly well developed BS filter.  If you don't already know the answer, it's impossible to validate the output.  And  Occam's razor tends to hold true.  

[Refleks]

One of my biggest questions as a first responder was how were we so ill equipped to respond on the PPE and basic necessities front?  I had assumed all this was well sorted... but In the IAFC brief they were tapping into the strategic national stockpile and still predicting severe shortages in short order. Why? We're mere weeks into this thing.  What would have happened if a far more serious outbreak occurred, a real world CBRN event or even natural disaster?  Why does it take a pandemic to illuminate the issues?

I did finally find an article at least referencing it (refreshing considering it should have _literally_ been the next question after "healthcare workers are running out of PPE").    According to this article 100 million masks were used under Obama for the H1N1 event, leaving around 12 million in the stockpile and the stockpile was never replenished.

But even if it had been replenished, it's well short of the 3.5 billion mask recommendation.

 https://www.studentnewsdaily.com/daily-news-article/la-times-and-bloomberg-news-federal-stockpile-of-n95-masks-was-depleted-under-obama/

We can argue whether heads should roll or not, but the way forward is clear -- un-f*&# it and never let it happen again.  Too many people ostensibly responsible for emergency management planning and preparation on the federal level are getting paid fat salaries for this to be a thing.  We all know the Federal Govt can screw up a wet dream, but a lot of people are utterly dependent on the state and their faith is still inexplicably unshaken.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Refleks

[Refleks]

"US never spent enough on emergency stockpile, former managers say"

https://www.registerguard.com/zz/news/20200327/us-never-spent-enough-on-emergency-stockpile-former-managers-say

Meanwhile...

https://www.space.com/space-force-2021-budget-request.html

Considering this has done more damage to the US (and global) economy than ISIS, North Korea, Iran, or literally anyone else could have ever dreamed of accomplishing through conventional means, you'd think it would warrant the same attention as a branch of the armed forces, from the national security perspective.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Refleks

[DaveTN]

42 minutes ago, Refleks said:

One of my biggest questions as a first responder was how were we so ill equipped to respond on the PPE and basic necessities front? 

I would guess its because some things like N95 masks have an expiration date. No one knew we would need a bazillion of them.

Then you have the media showing their ignorance by thinking it was appalling that people were told to use the expired masks instead of reusing them, or not using them at all.

I see a website that says “Premium or high-acuity ventilators — most commonly found in hospital ICUs — typically have a PSOL gas delivery design and can currently cost between $25,000 and $50,000.  Factors that can contribute to this price range include user configurability options and built-in safety features.”

The Whitehouse is kicking around the idea of General Motors and Ventec Life Systems building 80,000 of them for $1billion. (Or $12,500 each)

We are already in an overpriced healthcare system. Now we will have to make hospitals have the capability to take hundreds or thousands of patients into their ICU’s? That’s not going to happen.

We were no more prepared for this than we will be for a nuclear/dirty terrorist attack, or the huge Earthquakes the geologists have told us will happen when the San Andreas or New Madrid Faults start shifting. Its impossible to be prepared, when it comes with a price tag that can't be met.

[Refleks]

30 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

I would guess its because some things like N95 masks have an expiration date. No one knew we would need a bazillion of them.

Then you have the media showing their ignorance by thinking it was appalling that people were told to use the expired masks instead of reusing them, or not using them at all.

I see a website that says “Premium or high-acuity ventilators — most commonly found in hospital ICUs — typically have a PSOL gas delivery design and can currently cost between $25,000 and $50,000.  Factors that can contribute to this price range include user configurability options and built-in safety features.”

The Whitehouse is kicking around the idea of General Motors and Ventec Life Systems building 80,000 of them for $1billion. (Or $12,500 each)

We are already in an overpriced healthcare system. Now we will have to make hospitals have the capability to take hundreds or thousands of patients into their ICU’s? That’s not going to happen.

We were no more prepared for this than we will be for a nuclear/dirty terrorist attack, or the huge Earthquakes the geologists have told us will happen when the San Andreas or New Madrid Faults start shifting. Its impossible to be
prepared, when it comes with a price tag that can't be met.

Indeed.  And 112 million masks wouldn't have lasted long either, on the order of a week or so with best practices that preclude reuse. That's it -- that's all we had for contingencies.  Had this been a significantly worse pandemic, the tolls would be staggering. 

Speaking of expiration dates, our stockpile of pharmaceuticals and domestic capacity to produce them would probably be another surprise to most. Even with the DOD SLEP testing and evaluating their efficacy after expiration dates, a lot of people aren't going to be getting their medicine in very short order.

Even covering 10% of the population over existing capability seems well out of reach -- that would be on the order of 30 million patients once ICUs are full. Well outside the bounds of what we could expect to achieve without giving it armed services like budgets (which I'm not opposed to).  We are, in the end, consumers, living figuratively paycheck to paycheck. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Refleks

[Garufa]

Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act to compel those manufacturers who will not produce ventilators on a timely and equitable basis.

[Erik88]

7 minutes ago, Garufa said:

Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act to compel those manufacturers who will not produce ventilators on a timely and equitable basis.

He did that a week ago. Is he actually going to use it now?

[Garufa]

4 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

He did that a week ago. Is he actually going to use it now?

He did it again today for GM to cough up the ventilators they agreed to.  According to Trump GM wants “top dollar”.  I don’t know man, too much info to process.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Garufa

[FUJIMO]

9 minutes ago, Garufa said:

He did it again today for GM to cough up the ventilators they agreed to.  According to Trump GM wants “top dollar”.  I don’t know man, too much info to process.

Wouldn't you if its the only thing you're gonna sell in the next little bit ? We've heard about 15k toilet seats get ready for $12,500 ventilators . I think that's what they asked for.

[broox]

37 minutes ago, Garufa said:

He did it again today for GM to cough up the ventilators they agreed to.  According to Trump GM wants “top dollar”.  I don’t know man, too much info to process.

This is something I don't understand. How is GM gonna make ventilators?  I can't imagine the assembly line changes and training and supply line logistics that have to be worked out. I would think it would take a month of work before they  made one ventilator.

Edited March 27, 2020 by broox

[Garufa]

24 minutes ago, FUJIMO said:

Wouldn't you if its the only thing you're gonna sell in the next little bit ? We've heard about 15k toilet seats get ready for $12,500 ventilators . I think that's what they asked for.

If I was in that position maybe, but I’m not so GM can suck it.  There’s not a corporation in this country that can’t tighten their belt a bit...top down.  They’ll probably get a big fat government check anyway to keep them in business in the NEXT stimulus bill if it’s not already in this one.