SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[bud]

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Edited December 24, 2020 by bud

[Moped]

1 hour ago, btq96r said:

If anyone wonders why there is such a rush to get cash directly into people's hands, this part of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security COVID-19 update I get daily should clue you into the ripples our economy could get hit with if we don't do something.

 

My son and his girlfriend both work at local restaurants here in Knoxville. He has his realty license and is trying to break into that market, but works as a waiter to make ends meet and she is a student.  He's restaurant closed down yesterday and she's had her hours cut drastically amd their apartment rent is due at the end of the month.  So that $1000 they might each get will be very welcome, both by them and by my wife and I!

[Moped]

I just checked my 401K.  Off about 23% since January. 

[MacGyver]

Market is back to where it was in January 2017 - and we're likely nowhere near the floor.

Crude at $25 - and likely still some downside.

Crazy times.

[E4 No More]

1 hour ago, Moped said:

I just checked my 401K.  Off about 23% since January. 

I'm making a point not to check mine. I don't need the stress, and the big boys say to focus on the long term.

[GlockSpock]

1 hour ago, bud said:

Nashville Business Journal reported this morning that the bank lobbys at the largest local Nashville banks like Pinnacle and others will close, and offer only drive-through and ATM service. Appointments can be made to enter a branch if needed. Regions is doing the same starting tomorrow.

Many places around Nashville only taking payment in plastic to avoid handling cash.

I just hope everything returns to normal whenever this is over, and that it doesn't become a makeover of private healthcare and private banking. Hoping to avoid a whole new "Patriot Act" mandating self-sacrifice.

I trust 100% fully that they will. 

/s

[Snaveba]

The Dow is only down 34% since Feb3. Time to buy in. 

[Erik88]

I would have expected airline stock to rise today since it's clear they are getting a bailout. It's doing the opposite.  

[DaveTN]

16 minutes ago, E4 No More said:

I'm making a point not to check mine. I don't need the stress, and the big boys say to focus on the long term.

My wife told me to quit looking at it and quit worrying about it.

No one has clue 1 how long this will last or what will happen. Some reporters are too stupid to understand the President only know what his professionals are telling him, and no matter how many times they ask; it won’t change. Those professionals are standing right there on the stage with him and giving us a firsthand account. What do they say about timing when they get in front of the microphone? “We don’t know”, and “a vaccine would normally take 12-18 months”.

[DaveTN]

5 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

I would have expected airline stock to rise today since it's clear they are getting a bailout. It's doing the opposite.  

Why wouldn’t it? No one is flying; a bailout won’t change that. I don’t expect to see much of any change until this is over.

[btq96r]

3 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

I would have expected airline stock to rise today since it's clear they are getting a bailout. It's doing the opposite.  

The bailout will most likely keep them from hitting bankruptcy, but it won't put passengers in the air.

[MacGyver]

When you can't sell a seat at any price - you've got a demand shock - and that means there's still a lot of downside for an industry that is built on servicing that demand as close to the edge as they possibly can get.

And, illness numbers are going to spike a bunch in the next few weeks.  For the average American that doesn't really keep up with everything all the time - this is going to look like things are out of control. Which they kind of will be for a bit.

One thing that I really worry about in the weeks ahead is the lack of scaling up the ladder of care.  We're going to see more issues like the lack of reagents for test kits as more people get sick.  I'm pleased to see Trump potentially invoking the Defense Production Act - but industry doesn't turn in a day - and it's going to take a bit.

We're nowhere near the bottom in terms of financial markets. I'm not really a prediction person - but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow at 12K.

[btq96r]

2 hours ago, Moped said:

My son and his girlfriend both work at local restaurants here in Knoxville. He has his realty license and is trying to break into that market, but works as a waiter to make ends meet and she is a student.  He's restaurant closed down yesterday and she's had her hours cut drastically amd their apartment rent is due at the end of the month.  So that $1000 they might each get will be very welcome, both by them and by my wife and I!

The Bank of Mom & Dad is going to see a lot of lending from local branches all over the country I'd imagine. 

[Moped]

22 minutes ago, btq96r said:

The Bank of Mom & Dad is going to see a lot of lending from local branches all over the country I'd imagine. 

Yep.  It's hell to be young and starting outing in this economy.

[Erik88]

33 minutes ago, btq96r said:

The Bank of Mom & Dad is going to see a lot of lending from local branches all over the country I'd imagine. 

I have some sympathy but I've also accepted that people young and old just don't know how, or won't save. I had a conversation with a friend of mine last year because he got a big raise and cut his rent in half. I mentioned how he should try to stash some of that away. He looked at me dead serious and said he would rather spend the money now than save it for emergencies.  I'm having a hard time having sympathy for those people right now. We also have so many safety nets in place that I feel like people don't think there is any need. We enable this. Now we're talking about sending everyone $1,000. It's insanity. And I'm not talking about the single mom making $30K a year. I'm talking about middle class Americans with good salaries that spend every cent they make. 

At some point in my lifetime this runaway government spending will come back to bite us in the ass. There is no way we can sustain this.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Erik88

[TripleGGG]

55 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

When you can't sell a seat at any price - you've got a demand shock - and that means there's still a lot of downside for an industry that is built on servicing that demand as close to the edge as they possibly can get.

And, illness numbers are going to spike a bunch in the next few weeks.  For the average American that doesn't really keep up with everything all the time - this is going to look like things are out of control. Which they kind of will be for a bit.

One thing that I really worry about in the weeks ahead is the lack of scaling up the ladder of care.  We're going to see more issues like the lack of reagents for test kits as more people get sick.  I'm pleased to see Trump potentially invoking the Defense Production Act - but industry doesn't turn in a day - and it's going to take a bit.

We're nowhere near the bottom in terms of financial markets. I'm not really a prediction person - but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow at 12K.

Told someone today I looked at 12 or 13k would probably be the bottom. If the virus hits harder than predicted then all bets are off. 

[MacGyver]

36 minutes ago, TripleGGG said:

Told someone today I looked at 12 or 13k would probably be the bottom. If the virus hits harder than predicted then all bets are off. 

There are just way too many unknowns right now. 

But, the numbers are going to get a lot worse before they get better.  That's for sure.

[-boatman-]

5 hours ago, Moped said:

I just checked my 401K.  Off about 23% since January. 

I wish I had not seen this. I haven't looked and don't want to know.

[Garufa]

We really don’t need to hear anymore about the economic catastrophe this version of the flu has turned into.  That is well established.

The groundwork for the economic and social ramifications of this hysteria have already been laid...over a period of weeks and now day to day, by governments desperate to control mayhem and a global populace incapable of calming down.  One this is sure, there are going to be serious socio-economic ramifications.  We already seeing that.

Society as we know it likely to be very different in a few months.

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Garufa

[Raoul]

6 minutes ago, Garufa said:

We really don’t need to hear anymore about the economic catastrophe this version of the flu has turned into.  That is well established.

The groundwork for the economic and social ramifications of this hysteria have already been laid...over a period of weeks and now day to day, by governments desperate to control mayhem and a global populace incapable of calming down.

Society as we know it likely to be very different in a few months.

 

I hope your wrong. However I have changed my carry weapon from uber concealable to high capacity.

[RED333]

8 minutes ago, Garufa said:

Society as we know it likely to be very different in a few months.

This is my biggest fear, as much as I hate to admit it.

[Chucktshoes]

25 minutes ago, Garufa said:

We really don’t need to hear anymore about the economic catastrophe this version of the flu has turned into.  That is well established.

The groundwork for the economic and social ramifications of this hysteria have already been laid...over a period of weeks and now day to day, by governments desperate to control mayhem and a global populace incapable of calming down.  One this is sure, there are going to be serious socio-economic ramifications.  We already seeing that.

Society as we know it likely to be very different in a few months.

 

Bernie is probably pretty pissed this didn’t go down a couple of months ago. You want a mandate for M4A? This will give it. 

[TGO David]

Well, this report is public now so we can all do some reading and catch up I guess...

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact

The article itself is worth skimming.  The link to the report is in the last paragraph.  As you'll read in the opening statements of the report itself:  "Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks."

I wonder if there are companies in certain relevant industries that were briefed on this recently before it was published publicly.  I can only imagine that folks who work at those companies probably said things to their friends like, "I really wish I could talk about what I do at work" and then tried to suggest preventative actions that we all can read about now.

 

[TripleGGG]

40 minutes ago, TGO David said:

Well, this report is public now so we can all do some reading and catch up I guess...

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact

The article itself is worth skimming.  The link to the report is in the last paragraph.  As you'll read in the opening statements of the report itself:  "Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks."

I wonder if there are companies in certain relevant industries that were briefed on this recently before it was published publicly.  I can only imagine that folks who work at those companies probably said things to their friends like, "I really wish I could talk about what I do at work" and then tried to suggest preventative actions that we all can read about now.

 

Sobering 

[QuackerSmacker]

I did this investment gig professionally for 40+ years.  The Dow is not going to 12k.    If you're waiting for that (AND you wouldn't pull the trigger there anyway!) then get real excited if you see 15 or 16 or 17, with excitement levels in inverse order.  Meaning if you see 15, back up the truck and load up.

Load up in stages if the decline continues.  Everyone wants to buy when the market is at a peak.  That's why it gets to a peak. Duh!

Buy when blood is running in the gutter.   Buy when you can't stand to do it.

Buy SLV and OIL.   Those are ETFs on silver metal and crude oil.   SLV closed today at 11.21 and OIL closed at 4.67.

Desperate men do desperate things.  Bold men do desperate things, and bold things, but they do smarter things on both.

ETA:  You should be buying some US stocks NOW, such as an S&P 500 ETF.

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by QuackerSmacker
forgot to add that