SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

[MacGyver]

In any disease case, it's always interesting to look at the numbers.  There is so much speculation amongst our political class and the media - the first wants to protect their jobs, and the second needs something to fill the airwaves.  It's hard to know what to trust - but the data rarely lies.

There's still so much we don't know, but the following chart would indicate that the US(the first largest economy in the world) are on the same path as Italy(the eighth largest economy in the world) - just about 11.5 days behind. Also note the presence of Germany, France, the UK, and Spain (fourth, seventh, sixth, and thirteenth respectively.)

A week is not much time affect the slope of an exponential curve.  By the end of next week - Friday or Saturday - we could be looking at serious restrictions to combat community transmission.

This isn't a time to panic - but you know when Noah built the ark? Before it started raining.

It's probably worth making sure you've got a little bit extra set aside.  If you have underlying health issues - especially COPD or other respiratory conditions - maybe a little more.  Think about being in close contact with large groups.  Wash your hands.

[Chucktshoes]

I’ve pretty much come to the conclusion that I WILL get COVID-19. With my job it’s a forgone conclusion at this point. 

[MacGyver]

I’m going to hide the above post.

I was hoping this thread wouldn’t go straight to conspiracy theory - simply because it will distract from needed focus to respond and prepare adequately.

It’s worth noting that the Wuhan Institute was the first to identify and upload the DNA of the virus last year for public study. And, the Financial Times has published peer reviewed epidemiology studies showing no genetic mutations - meaning the strains of this virus have evolved naturally and have not been modified/weaponized in a lab. 

[peejman]

Does anyone think the number of people diagnosed is remotely accurate?  A large number of those who have been confirmed to have the virus have reported relatively minor symptoms.  What percentage of people who get a cold that's treatable with OTC meds see a doctor at all?  I don't go to my doctor unless I've been miserable for at least a week.  I'd presume I'm in the majority there.

That leads me to believe that it's way more widespread than is being reported.  Which also means the death rate isn't nearly as high as currently stated. 

[MP5_Rizzo]

This is the only video I've ever watched of Dr. Mike but I think he nails the situation.

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by MP5_Rizzo
Fixed Link

[MacGyver]

It's almost certainly the case that more people have had it than have been tested/reported.  We'll only know looking back what the actual morbidity/mortality numbers really shape up to be.

But, right now we see that it presents as particularly dangerous to older folks with underlying medical conditions.

[MacGyver]

11 minutes ago, MP5_Rizzo said:

This is the only video I've ever watched of Dr. Mike but I think he nails the situation.

 

I don't know what kind of doctor Dr. Mike is, but I'd sure watch a video on his skin care regimen.

[Snaveba]

1 hour ago, peejman said:

Does anyone think the number of people diagnosed is remotely accurate?  A large number of those who have been confirmed to have the virus have reported relatively minor symptoms.  What percentage of people who get a cold that's treatable with OTC meds see a doctor at all?  I don't go to my doctor unless I've been miserable for at least a week.  I'd presume I'm in the majority there.

That leads me to believe that it's way more widespread than is being reported.  Which also means the death rate isn't nearly as high as currently stated. 

I completely believe the current number of infected or post infected (recovered) is easily an order of magnitude or more higher than the 120000ish cases reported. If the number is 1,200,000 that makes the “mortality rate” drop from ~3% to ~0.3%. Now, the older population is still more venerable to more serious complications than the average person. 
 

WASH YOUR HANDS!!!!!

Edited March 10, 2020 by Snaveba

[Ronald_55]

I put a post up on my blog about this ( Leveledsurvival.com - minor plug if you want to look ). Basically the reported mortality rate was 2% the last time I looked. I also feel (like @peejman) there are lots of unreported mild cases. That would make the mortality rate percentage plummet. In addition you need to look at the deaths. From my understanding it the young, old and already ill that are being hit the hardest. This is the normal pattern. So if you are a relatively good health, can get adequate medical care if your symptoms progress, and take care of yourself, you should be fine even if you get it. 

What I really worry about is the actual panic that is being fed by lots of groups. That panic can be way more dangerous than the illness. The whole mask and toilet paper hoarding is just the tip of the iceberg. If distribution lines were to get disrupted and the panicked crowd see food shelves empty, it could get ugly. The reality does not matter, it is the perception of the situation that drives the resulting actions. The results may be panic and rioting that results in nothing more than the destruction of existing resources and limits aid from entering the area. Obviously that creates a bad downward spiral that could be hard to pull out of it it became widespread. 

Anyone that has a family and does not keep a back stock of supplies to sustain them through a snowstorm, being isolated by flood water, social unrest, job loss, or even quarantine is not doing anyone any favors. It is just a matter of good household management. Cost rarely can be used as a determining factor. Splurge on a Coleman stove ($44 on Amazon if you can't find a second hand one) and a few canisters of fuel (4 for $13.87 at Wal-Mart). The rest can be cheap, Ramen noodles and stores brand cans of soup can fill the food pantry as long as you have no dietary restrictions. Water can simply be gallon jugs that you can buy for $0.99 each if you do not have any containers. If you have access to or want to buy clean water containers, then it gets even cheaper by simply refilling them at the sink. Just rotate the water periodically to keep it fresh. Being prepared to "weather the storm" isn't hard, it just requires taking responsibility for yourself and your family, Basically people have primed themselves for panic by only having batteries and mustard in their fridge and a stale box of corn flakes in the pantry. 

[peejman]

1 hour ago, Snaveba said:

I completely believe the current number of infected or post infected (recovered) is easily an order of magnitude or more higher than the 120000ish cases reported. If the number is 1,200,000 that makes the “mortality rate” drop from ~3% to ~0.3%. Now, the older population is still more venerable to more serious complications than the average person. 
 

WASH YOUR HANDS!!!!!

Me too. Which makes it very similar to the various strains of the flu virus that go around every year, which we largely ignore.  The only noticeable difference I see is a stark and intriguing lack of effect on little kids, which will certainly have to be investigated.  

I really, really never thought I'd say this, but I think Elon Musk is right on this one. 

[Dirtshooter]

2 hours ago, Snaveba said:

I completely believe the current number of infected or post infected (recovered) is easily an order of magnitude or more higher than the 120000ish cases reported. If the number is 1,200,000 that makes the “mortalityate” drop from ~3% to ~0.3%. Now, the older population is still more venerable to more serious complications than the average person. 

I think the media is trying to create a frenzy that could upset folks going to the polls in November. And no I don't wear or have a tinfoil hat. There are 30,000-45,000 people that die every year of the flu and you don't hear CNN say much about it. There is plenty of toilet tissue to go around if people wouldn't buy 2 years worth at a time. This reminds me of the .22LR "shortage" we had. I would love to know how many billion or more rounds aren't setting in the bottom of a lot of gun safes that will never be shot. But they got em!! I saw a figure and don't know if it was true saying that ammo sales had went thru the roof since the virus got bigger. Are some guys going to shoot the virus?? The figure for .40 cal was something like 470% increase. Oh well lets see what the media can stir up tomorrow. Boy Howdy!!

[TGO David]

I hope those of you who think this is just media hype are right.  The graph that MacGyver posted isn't selling anything or trying to prop up Nielsen ratings, so you might want to consider that as well.

While the media has seized this as the latest thing to connect eyeballs to advertising dollars, don't let that cloud your ability to think rationally and consider the way this virus is spreading exponentially.  And even if the people who are most vulnerable are the aged and the infirm, the fear that is swirling around it is capable of crippling economies and already has done exactly that in other countries.

In a few weeks, it would be great if we could look back at this and laugh about how wrong the believers were.  In the meantime, I'd be making sure I had food, water, essential medicines, and other necessities required to be confined to my house for 2-3 weeks.  I'd also be making sure my vehicle(s) had full tanks of gas so that if the petroleum supply chain is interrupted by a labor shortage, I still had fuel to get to wherever I might need to go in an emergency.

 

Postscript note... I wish I could type more but I'm still on the clock from 0700HRS, making very unprecedented preparations for a company that doesn't spook easily when it comes to healthcare topics.

[Grayfox54]

Ok, this is a serious disease and does need to be taken as such. It is spreading rapidly and needs to be kept a close eye on.  However, I do also believe that MSM is over blowing the situation, spreading false information and inciting unneeded panic,solely for their own purposes. Ya know, never let a good crisis go to waste. 

I am not going to panic. I'm 65 years old and I do have COPD. Yeah, right in the prime group to die from this thing. I call BS! I might get it and then I might not. Who knows? I sure don't. I'll take reasonable precautions such as washing my hands and such. But I'll be damned if I'm gonna let it control my life. 

There is currently ONE confirmed case in Memphis. A female who recently traveled outside of the state, but not outside of the U.S. She is quarantined at Baptist Hospital and reportedly doing well. 

There is also ONE man who was in direct contact with this woman who is voluntarily on home quarantine. Reports say he is showing no symptoms.

Ok, so that's ONE confirmed case and ONE maybe. Neither of which is like threatening. So what's the local news leading with every night? You guessed it! let's stir up some panic!  

Unfortunately, I'm of the opinion that this mess is just getting started and may drag out for a year or more. We live in a mobile society, people travel all over the world every day. This stuff is spreading fast. The government can try to issue travel bans or whatever, But that horse is already way out of the barn. 

[Dirtshooter]

9 minutes ago, TGO David said:

I'd also be making sure my vehicle(s) had full tanks of gas so that if the petroleum supply chain is interrupted by a labor shortage, I still had fuel to get to wherever I might need to go in an emergency.

And where might that be if everyone is quarantined and the supply chain for food, meds and other essential items are stopped cold in their tracks? Just saying.

[TGO David]

11 minutes ago, Dirtshooter said:

And where might that be if everyone is quarantined and the supply chain for food, meds and other essential items are stopped cold in their tracks? Just saying.

For ####s sake.  Just go back to watching TV.

[MacGyver]

2 hours ago, Dirtshooter said:

I think the media is trying to create a frenzy that could upset folks going to the polls in November. And no I don't wear or have a tinfoil hat. There are 30,000-45,000 people that die every year of the flu and you don't hear CNN say much about it. There is plenty of toilet tissue to go around if people wouldn't buy 2 years worth at a time. This reminds me of the .22LR "shortage" we had. I would love to know how many billion or more rounds aren't setting in the bottom of a lot of gun safes that will never be shot. But they got em!! I saw a figure and don't know if it was true saying that ammo sales had went thru the roof since the virus got bigger. Are some guys going to shoot the virus?? The figure for .40 cal was something like 470% increase. Oh well lets see what the media can stir up tomorrow. Boy Howdy!!

I hope I’m wrong about this - but I believe data.  And this data - while almost certainly underreported in communities so far - is damning. 

We could be in a world of hurt in a week or two - and some folks would still swear that’s it’s a liberal plot.

Take a look at an Italian paper - I’ve posted the links here to translated versions:

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=2&hl=en&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=it&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.repubblica.it/&usg=ALkJrhgCwm0UJj3GAySvDUO0KX16FVYgrg
 

If we wind up where the data suggests, in a week people will be asking why “the media” didn’t take it more seriously. And certainly they have some culpability in trying to fill airtime with talking heads instead of experts.

Just remember when Noah built the ark...

[Grayfox54]

The real impact of this disease isn't physical, its economic. People are told not to go to work, others are afraid to go anyplace that could be crowded. Companies are losing productivity. Stores have difficulty restocking needed goods. There is a manpower shortage. People are neither making or spending money. They're just sitting at home, wringing their hands and waiting for this to blow over. 

Getting sick is just the tip of this iceberg. 

[TGO David]

3 minutes ago, Grayfox54 said:

The real impact of this disease isn't physical, its economic. People are told not to go to work, others are afraid to go anyplace that could be crowded. Companies are losing productivity. Stores have difficulty restocking needed goods. There is a manpower shortage. People are neither making or spending money. They're just sitting at home, wringing their hands and waiting for this to blow over. 

Getting sick is just the tip of this iceberg. 

For most of us, yes you are correct about the impact being economic.  There are undoubtedly people who will be susceptible to the virus itself to a more serious degree than others.  For them it could be fatal.

 

[Refleks]

From a first responder standpoint, there are a lot of lessons to be learned here from the emergency management / planning side of things.  It's actually surprising to see these issues pop up now, given that this isn't our first rodeo with pandemics.

Things like not relying on "just in time" logistics model for mission critical items (such as masks), considering it's obvious even to the layperson that this sort of approach doesn't hold up if there is a sudden surge in demand, a sudden collapse in the supply chain, or in this case, both.  It was never meant to. 

It's in the interest of national security not only to maintain a sufficient stockpile of these items, but also maintain the capability to rapidly ramp up production domestically so that if our main supply route from China is no longer available, we are fully equipped to deal with a pandemic with organic assets, including surges even more significant than what we're seeing with COVID-19.  Where we do have domestic production, we find ourselves sorely lacking in the manpower and facilities to meet anything beyond predicted levels of demand.  Single points of failure are not uncommon -- 85% of all the worlds IV bags are manufactured in a single facility in Puerto Rico, and severe shortages occurred after Hurricane Maria.    There are also additional downstream effects -- prescription drugs that we developed that may have nothing to do with this (ie, blood pressure medication, medication for those with end stage renal disease, etc) are often made in China and India to save money, and we're seeing a shortage in those active ingredients.  Healthcare providers will often not simply write you an extra months prescription so you can "shelter in place" / "self quarantine" because they're more worried about you selling your drugs on the street than hardening our ability to deal with unexpected situations (including natural disasters and pandemics).  With the flu season being as bad as it has been, a lot of people have already used up their sick days and there is no "national crisis" exception protecting workers from punishment in case of a pandemic on top of that.  Companies are telling people they can no longer call out sick, and considering most Americans live paycheck to paycheck they can't afford to anyway.  Simultaneously they are not permitted to wear a mask themselves because of dress codes and the companies desire to maintain a professional face to the customer. 

Coronavirus may not be that deadly to the general population, but experience in Italy has shown that the vulnerable demographics can and will still overwhelm our ability to respond to them, with the result being hospital staffing shortages, delay of routine care that would ordinarily happen in the absence of the pandemic (surgeries, cancer treatments, etc) to repurpose those assets towards expanding ICU capability and staffing.  In the end, this means mortality rates that would normally be pretty low because we're able to provide focused care to those who are especially vulnerable are instead significantly higher than they ostensibly should be because we're simply don't have the assets to give everyone that same level of care we're used to when the resources aren't saturated.  Some of the anecdotes coming out of there are, conservatively put, unpleasant for both the populace and provider (ie, people arresting in ICU with no interventions made)

Social Media is, of course, polarizing as it is with all things.  "It's the end of the world", or "it's nothing at all to be concerned with"... and like most things the truth is somewhere in the middle, and depends on your perspective.  Losing a loved one can certainly feel like the end of the world, and it's cold comfort to console them with the statistics that it wasn't very likely.   The economic repercussions to the global economy stemming from a single person eating a single bat on the other side of the world turns out to be immeasurable and yet to even be fully realized.   Our response to this butterfly effect, a tragedy of the commons. Perhaps ameliorated if we were all on the same page, but when have we ever been?  The mainstream media is no help, they've long since dropped any veneer of being unbiased and left journalistic integrity by the wayside, sacrificed at the alter of clicks, views and ad revenue so they of course continue to sensationalize everything.  I'm not as upset by that I suppose because that's what I've come to expect from them, and I'd prefer too much noise to too little signal, with the recognition that we as citizens should be equipped with the judgement and experience to be able to pick the useful bits out of the din where we can.

So in a broader sense, it's not Coronavirus itself, it's what it represents and the illumination it's provided on some serious cracks in our ability to effectively to respond to natural disasters, including pandemics.   Upon discovering these issues I can't help but get a sense of incredulousness.  Are you kidding me?   Many of them are entirely preventable and were simply policy choices. To find out with trillions spent this sort of thing has been going on decades, spanning administrations.... It's common sense to even the layperson, even if just in principle, that this is not the correct approach, and it was only a matter of time until these problems were revealed, if not through corona virus than something else.  There are far too many people earning a comfortable GS10 and above salary throughout Government, the CDC, FEMA, DHS for this to be a thing. Yet here we are.

We've all heard "when seconds count, police are only minutes away", and I often tell people that despite our best efforts, first responders cannot be everywhere at once and so as a sovereign individual you share at least some of the responsibility for your own well being until help can arrive.  Even for those who espouse the state over the individual this is the case to at least some degree, yet the very thought is met with by gawking by those who has come to be utterly dependent on the state.   This experience has only reinforced my understanding that the Government, even if well intentioned, is not a monolith acting as a single entity... it's instead a big ship to steer, and getting anything done through the bureaucracy can be a real challenge, with these delays measured in lives.  Penny wise and pound foolish, hundreds of millions to tens of billions in expanding and hardening domestic infrastructure for surety sake is significantly cheaper than the hundreds of billions in economic impacts that failing to do so can bring, especially considering deadly pandemics have always been a matter of when, not if.


Here's a recent thread from events in Italy:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237142891077697538.html


 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Refleks
Edited for grammar and clarity

[Hozzie]

I guess I am a bad person as I just don't care about this at all.  Seems to me all of the impact is caused by proliferation of the apparent societal desire that only the worst possible outcomes will happen regardless of reality.

Is it contagious, sure.  Is it deadly to a few, yes.  Is it going to stop the world as we know it, of course not. 

It's simply a self fulfilling prophecy which is being exacerbated by the media looking for the most sensational story possible.

If this was 30 years ago we probably wouldn't have heard about it and probably would have been better off.

[btq96r]

Since we've been battling the flu around our office for a few weeks before Coronamania, my job has already told people to work from home if symptoms of any kind manifest.  The medical practice I work with is already coming up with contingency plans of how to keep essential services we provide going while just hitting pause on routine outpatient ones.  Every shopping trip I'm buying a few more cans of soup and Dinty Moore to stock the cabinet.  Since it's just me alone in my apartment, I don't need the absurd amount of toilet paper you're seeing folks leave Costco with.

I'm not worried for myself.  I figure if I get sick, I'll have some bad days, but it'll be over along the reported timeline.  I do worry about my father.  He's in his early 70s, and as a lifelong smoker, has a bit of a higher risk profile.  As with any disease that spreads fast, the elderly will be hit hardest. 

I'm amazed that hand sanitizer is flying off the shelves while bars of soap are pretty much fully stocked.  Our society has gotten quite lazy at the most basic of things.

[Garufa]

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Garufa

[Mamba]

16 hours ago, TGO David said:

In a few weeks, it would be great if we could look back at this and laugh about how wrong the believers were.  In the meantime, I'd be making sure I had food, water, essential medicines, and other necessities required to be confined to my house for 2-3 weeks.  I'd also be making sure my vehicle(s) had full tanks of gas so that if the petroleum supply chain is interrupted by a labor shortage, I still had fuel to get to wherever I might need to go in an emergency.

Exactly what I've been telling friends/family, starting a month or so past. Don't panic but do be prepared. There will be those who panic and that will have supply/economic impact. And of course the MSM stokes the fire.
On the local news today it was reported that over 50K hotel reservations in Nashville have been cancelled. Along with other factors, that's a $25M loss in revenue. The economic ripple of this virus will be felt. 
I'm not a world-will-end prepper but I do prepare in the same manner that I buy insurance, own fire-extinguishers and sensors, and CC everywhere I can.

[MacGyver]

The World Health Organization has just classified this outbreak as a pandemic:

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020

13-fold increase in the last two weeks in cases outside of China. 118,000 documented case. 4,291 lost lives so far.

I'm sure some of you will discount the WHO for whatever reason they don't always reflect your political worldview.  

Fine.

But, read this as the warning light on the panel going red.  

Some of y'all have tens of thousands of rounds set aside for a proverbial zombie apocalypse or whatever. Don't discount this. Take the time now - while it's feasible to make sure you're squared away for a few days/weeks. Check on people close to you.

As a person of faith - this is a great time to really think about, "who is my neighbor?"

 

[Erik88]

One thing is certain. If the country does go on some sort of house arrest/lock down, there will be a ton of babies born in 9 months.