Commercial Real Estate

[Guest nraforlife]

All

Watch out for the commercial real estate market to get worse real fast. All of these layoffs and store closings are going to kill commercial property.

[Guest edge3343]

The market the way it is there are some really good deals in both residential and commercial real estate. if your credit is good it is a great time to buy.

[TripleDigitRide]

The market the way it is there are some really good deals in both residential and commercial real estate. if your credit is good it is a great time to buy.

That's true, but you better be very confident that your employer can keep you around, or if you're a business owner, you better be confident that customers will continue to have the ability to pay.

Being the buyers market that it is, I was gonna take the leap, but as confident as I'd like to be with my employment situation, I decided to hold off for a bit.

[Guest SUNTZU]

I know commercial construction is in the crapper.

[tbuford]

Cant say that I agree 100% regarding the commercial market...or residential for that matter...yes, business closings and layoffs and downsizings are the current headline...lease defaults are rising and doors are being closed...but with every lost dream comes opportunity for a fresh start....I have been selling Real Estate for a while now and can honestly say...4.75% for a 30 yr conventional.....we will never see these rates again in our lifetime...and those inventory homes that were just sitting for months? Well, they are starting to move...as soon as we see inventory levels come back into line (which they are by the way) you will see the prices for existing inventories go up (supply and demand) and the market will be back in line. As far as commercial...goes that depends on which window you are looking through...If you are an investor...you would be foaming at the mouth....like a shark circling some chum....if you are a business owner..not so sure. Businesses need to adapt and change with the demands of the market.....the old days of "I'm doing it this way cause I always have" will make you wind up in the unemployment line...bottom line is bottom line..hard decisions need to be made, and sometimes folks get their feelings hurt and relationships break but those who have a desire, will make it. I know of parts of town where commercial is booming...others where it is like a ghost town..

[Guest jackdog]

Considering that probably the majority of commercial property centers around the retail market this would indeed be a risky venture. Folks that less than 12 months ago were subscribing to the I want it, I want it now philosophy are now pulling spending back big time. You also have to consider the real estate market has been propped up by the government for a long time and prices were highly inflated. So how good of deal is it really and is the risk worthwhile. I think that the prices now available will be 20 40 percent less in trhe next 12 months. The economy is not going to bounce back any time soon and it will get a lot worse before we see any recovery. If the current administration continues with the theory that we must spend our way out of this mess then we are all gonna be screwed.

[tbuford]

The government is what caused the residential Real Estate market to be in the position that it is in. The Clinton administration pushed the buttons for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to make loans to folks that had NO BUSINESS buying a home without any sort of moral obligation to the borrower as to the ability to repay. The loans are the way they should have been all along...good credit and some money to put down are required....To say that residential is bad is laughable if you are a buyer...if you are a seller...well...its tough. Home values are down to to the inventory levels mentioned earlier and the amount of short-sales and foreclosed properties selling at auction and on the courthouse steps...that will hurt values anywhere....20%-40% less in the next 12 months...maybe in the commercial but not in the residential sector. You are correct in the relationship between the retail and commercial...mostly they are the same...it may have slowed overall..but to say that it is hurting...well, there are folks in Murfreesboro, Mt. Juliet and areas of Sumner county that would beg to differ...dirt is moving everywhere and large commitments from national companies, retail outlets and in the right locations (those mentioned) anchor stores are waiting in line to get in...

[Punisher84]

That's true, but you better be very confident that your employer can keep you around, or if you're a business owner, you better be confident that customers will continue to have the ability to pay.

Being the buyers market that it is, I was gonna take the leap, but as confident as I'd like to be with my employment situation, I decided to hold off for a bit.

There is alot of truth in that.I know my job isn't going anywhere, but they are trimming the fat. So that means no OT, raises being tight, if you get one at all, etc.

We are hoping to buy next summer.

[Guest jackdog]

At this point We are spending as little as possible. I foresee in the very near future food shortages or prices so high that average American families will be lucky to survive.

There is also a very real possibility that the Mexican economy will totally collapse in the near future. Any one want to bet what will happen then.

[Punisher84]

At this point We are spending as little as possible. I foresee in the very near future food shortages or prices so high that average American families will be lucky to survive.

There is also a very real possibility that the Mexican economy will totally collapse in the near future. Any one want to bet what will happen then.

Alot of angry, hungry illegals? No jobs for them because construction is in the crapper and no one will have money for Taco Bell.

[Guest bkelm18]

Alot of angry, hungry illegals? No jobs for them because construction is in the crapper and no one will have money for Taco Bell.

Your life has got to be pretty damn ****ty if you can't even afford Taco Bell. Well, it does get pretty ****ty even if you can afford to eat Taco Hell but a different kind of :poop:.

[Punisher84]

Your life has got to be pretty damn ****ty if you can't even afford Taco Bell. Well, it does get pretty ****ty even if you can afford to eat Taco Hell but a different kind of :poop:.

BAH-DUM-CHAAA!

[TGO David]

All

Watch out for the commercial real estate market to get worse real fast. All of these layoffs and store closings are going to kill commercial property.

Why was this posted in the Newsworthy Reports forum?

You need to stop spamming the forum with these silly "the sky is falling" threads and pay attention to where you're posting. The only forum that should have played host to this thread is the Off Topic lounge.

Moving it.

[bvarnell]

The scary part of commercial RE is that most malls/retail centers are financed with 5-7 yr. notes (30 yr amort).

When these start coming up to refi (15 to 20% a year), will the banks be willing to make another mortgage?

If they don't, we will see multi million dollar foreclosures through the roof.

[tbuford]

..........?

I'm not ready to give into the Chicken Little theory....

Edited February 16, 2009 by tbuford

[Fadex]

And yet I see submittals for new commercial construction every week.

[Guest SUNTZU]

And yet I see submittals for new commercial construction every week.

Just as many as you have seen this time last year, or the year before that?

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS116910+19-Mar-2008+PRN20080319

http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag23.htm

Glad you're getting submittals. How many of those jobs have you pulled in? How many are you bidding against? I guess all of the laid off construction workers is just a fantasy news story dreamed up by the media. That's not a tinfoil conspiracy theory to me.

[Guest cjr]

My commercial construction has not slowed a bit,in fact Im looking at a better 09 than 08.

[Fadex]

Just as many as you have seen this time last year, or the year before that?

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS116910+19-Mar-2008+PRN20080319

http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag23.htm

Glad you're getting submittals. How many of those jobs have you pulled in? How many are you bidding against? I guess all of the laid off construction workers is just a fantasy news story dreamed up by the media. That's not a tinfoil conspiracy theory to me.

I don't bid them. I'm part of the review team.

Nope, not as many as there have been in the last two years. But the construction levels of the last two years, at least in Murfreesboro, were far above anything I have experienced in the last decade. Right now we are pretty much at the same level of commercial project submittals that we saw in 2005-2006. The big difference in what I see is that the smaller, strip center retail development has dropped off while the larger, and mixed use development is the line share of what's coming through.

[tbuford]

Just as many as you have seen this time last year, or the year before that?

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS116910+19-Mar-2008+PRN20080319

http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag23.htm

Glad you're getting submittals. How many of those jobs have you pulled in? How many are you bidding against? I guess all of the laid off construction workers is just a fantasy news story dreamed up by the media. That's not a tinfoil conspiracy theory to me.

How many are laid off this time of year anyway due to weather, seasonal job levels????? You can link in all of the "national" surveys, opinion polls, paid columnists editorials out of Washington you want....fact of the matter is NO ONE can make a blanket statement about the market.....whats taking place in California isn't taking place in Vegas, isn't taking place in Dallas, isa't taking place in Tupelo, isn't taking place in Nashvile, Murfreesboro, Dover or Gallain....there are hot spots where people WANT TO BE...bottom line.... and they are going to make it happen...regardless of what the market in Grinders Switch dictates.

[Guest SUNTZU]

I'm glad you guy's are staying busy out there. I guess I took the tinfoil hat thing the wrong way in thinking that you were saying that construction is going strong. Its not around here. I've seen jobs with thirteen to twenty three people bidding on them, and they aren't work that some of these companies regularly perform. I've also seen a lot of guys laid off across the board of different subcontractors. I hope it stay strong for you fadex and cjr.

[Guest SUNTZU]

How many are laid off this time of year anyway due to weather, seasonal job levels????? You can link in all of the "national" surveys, opinion polls, paid columnists editorials out of Washington you want....fact of the matter is NO ONE can make a blanket statement about the market.....whats taking place in California isn't taking place in Vegas, isn't taking place in Dallas, isa't taking place in Tupelo, isn't taking place in Nashvile, Murfreesboro, Dover or Gallain....there are hot spots where people WANT TO BE...bottom line.... and they are going to make it happen...regardless of what the market in Grinders Switch dictates.

Why so hostile?

Around Knoxville, where I live, not California, Vegas, Dallas,, or Tupelo, is where I am talking about. I linked to statistical trends. There is not as much construction work being done, in Knoxville, there are a lot of layoffs in all trades, in Knoxville. There is a large population difference between Gallatin and Knoxville. How many twenty million plus a year contractors do you have there? If they're hiring, I might move. If I'm coming across as an ass, tbuford, I apologize. I've just been talking about what I've seen here in my area.

[tbuford]

Why so hostile?

Around Knoxville, where I live, not California, Vegas, Dallas,, or Tupelo, is where I am talking about. I linked to statistical trends. There is not as much construction work being done, in Knoxville, there are a lot of layoffs in all trades, in Knoxville. There is a large population difference between Gallatin and Knoxville. How many twenty million plus a year contractors do you have there? If they're hiring, I might move. If I'm coming across as an ass, tbuford, I apologize. I've just been talking about what I've seen here in my area.

Not trying to be hostile...and I apoligize as well if it came across that way. I know that alot of good people are hurting right now...skilled labor, professionals, trade..its across the board. Different areas will always be more desireable than others...not that Gallatin is the next big thing...but areas in Sumner County are doing well with shovel-ready projects that merchants are especially interested in right now. The same goes for the Murfreesboro and Mt. Juliet areas as well. My frustration lies with the media and the state of panic that it tends to put everyone in. I have seen, especially in residential, the media scare everyone to death, they are afraid to do anything. Our society tends to dwell on the negative...and thats because thats all they hear about. The NAR reported an increase in home sales...it went virtually unreported...the rates are at a lifetime low (4.75% for a deal that I am working right now on a 30yr conv)...where are the media reports on that? Our society is craving something positive...something they can hold onto for a glimmer of hope...unfortunately, if they wait for the 10:00 news, it won't happen. If investors can get a little something positive on their plate, well then maybe we might see a shift in this downward spiral that most are buying into. Knoxville is a wonderful area...we always do our annual trips in the fall...hit a game or two and head to Pigeon Forge so the wife can do some Christmas shopping while me and the boys ride go-carts all day and visit the knife store (on the right as you go in...the name slips me at this point)...I wish you the best..hopefully things will turn around for everyone out there...and it may be happening....we just don't know about it yet!

[Guest SUNTZU]

Completely agree with you about the media. That's what gets me so mad about work around here. People are afraid to do anything due to the doom and gloom crew. BTW, Smoky Mtn. Knife Works is the place you're thinking of, I bet. I wanna run up to the Lodge works across the sidestreet from there to pick up another dutch oven.

[tbuford]

Completely agree with you about the media. That's what gets me so mad about work around here. People are afraid to do anything due to the doom and gloom crew. BTW, Smoky Mtn. Knife Works is the place you're thinking of, I bet. I wanna run up to the Lodge works across the sidestreet from there to pick up another dutch oven.

+1...thats it....spent about 3 hours in there this past year while the wife shopped and went to get her some cast iron as well....they have some good prices on some of their stuff in there...I picked up a really nice Hen and Rooster skinning / Gut hook this year...saw it elsewhere for about $25 more when we got home...Knives and all the pancake houses a man could want...doesn't get much better!