Chicago ignores Risk Based Strategies

[A.J. Holst]

In lending, we use risk based pricing to set rates, amounts / advances, and terms.

Insurance underwriters use actuarial tables to compare behavior to risk to price accordingly.

In Chicago, Rahm says it's too many bad guys with guns, moral decay, and a lack of community reporting.

A West Chicago pastor responded; while Chicagoans were being gunned down, the mayor was celebrating his new green spaces in the re gentrified area. Citizens do not trust the police and have no protection if they report gang members.

CPD does have an actuarial tables to forecast risk. Politicians and the Media choose to ignore facts.

It's not guns or race, it's a gang problem with a catch and release solution.

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2018/08/john-boch/a-detailed-look-at-last-weekends-chicago-gang-violence-shooting-victims/

 

Edited August 12, 2018 by Gotthegoods

[RED333]

If Jay walking carried the death penalty there would be no Jay walking!!!

 

[DaveTN]

The hands of Chicago Police have been tied. They say they are staying in their cars unless directly detailed to something because being proactive will cost them their job. This is exactly what the liberals and criminals wanted. That will not work; they will eventually discover that. The question is will they discover it in time to reverse the damage.

They now want a citizen’s advisor board to investigate, discipline, and make the decision if cops are charged. If that happens I suspect most good cops will quit, leaving Chicago with nothing but a pool of thugs to choose their Police officers from.

At the rate things are going in Chicago due to mismanagement and crooked politicians; the Feds will eventually have to step in. Of course that would require Sessions to do something; so unless Trump gives him specific orders on how to do his job I doubt that will happen.

[gregintenn]

26 minutes ago, Gotthegoods said:

In lending, we use risk based pricing to set rates, amounts / advances, and terms.

Insurance underwriters use actuarial tables to compare behavior to risk to price accordingly.

In Chicago, Rahm says it's too many bad guys with guns, moral decay, and a lack of community reporting.

A West Chicago pastor responded; while Chicagoans were being gunned down, the mayor was celebrating his new green spaces in the re gentrified area. Citizens do not trust the police and have no protection if they report gang members.

CPD does have an actuarial tables to forecast risk. Politicians and the Media choose to ignore facts.

It's not guns or race, it's a gang problem with a catch and release solution.

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2018/08/john-boch/a-detailed-look-at-last-weekends-chicago-gang-violence-shooting-victims/

 

I agree with the gun part, and will probably get dinged for saying it, but I'd love to see the percentages of these shootings broken down by race. I'd bet better than 90% of them are committed by a single race, and that race isn't near the majority in this country.

[DaveTN]

32 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

I agree with the gun part, and will probably get dinged for saying it, but I'd love to see the percentages of these shootings broken down by race. I'd bet better than 90% of them are committed by a single race, and that race isn't near the majority in this country.

We can’t have honest open discussions about race. If you start quoting facts you are just labeled a racist and the conversation is over.

I was a Police Officer in Illinois (not Chicago) in the 70’s/80’s. Our Chief made the statement publically that 30% on the population was responsible for 70% of the crime. They tried to crucify him for that statement, but it didn’t work.

I believe that money can fix most things, and that most people would rather have jobs than be criminals. Income and jobs has more to do with crime than race.

My most violent encounters and response to the most violent crimes was drunk white men. We (the Police) weren’t shooting and killing blacks; they were doing that to each other. It does not appear to me that has changed.

[AuEagle]

1 hour ago, gregintenn said:

I agree with the gun part, and will probably get dinged for saying it, but I'd love to see the percentages of these shootings broken down by race. I'd bet better than 90% of them are committed by a single race, and that race isn't near the majority in this country.

https://heyjackass.com/

[gregintenn]

9 minutes ago, AuEagle said:

https://heyjackass.com/

Thanks for the ljnk. Looks like I wasn't too far off.

[bersaguy]

Back in the early 70's I had a cousin employed by the Illinois department of corrections. At the time it operated with a segregation program until a bunch of the Jailhouse Lawyers filed enough petitions that the Supreme Court made a ruling that segregation was no longer allowed in any penal system in any state. The state of Illinois try to get around that new order from the court by converting one of the facilities into what they called the SPU Facility or proper name was Special Programming Unit. Once they got the construction completed. They hand picked a complete 3 shift crew of correctional officers to operate this unit and my cousin was one of them. They chose the Old Joliet Prison as the SPU and they began moving prisoners from all of the other prisons across the state. They were stocking the SPU with the worst of the worst from every facilty across the state. All of the biggest trouble makers would be housed in 2 special cell blocks. Each cell walk was 40 cells long and each house had 8 walks so once full there was 640 inmates housed is the facility.  All of the head gang leaders from all of the gangs in Chicago. Black P Stone Nation, Black Gangsters, Black Disciples, Black Rangers, China Town Dukes, and many other gang leaders all in one facility made for a very interesting population. It was a 4 step program and as long as you didn't cause any trouble or disrespect any guards for 1 month you would move up to level 2 and so on and so on. If you went 6 months without a write up you were transfered back to one of the other facilities in the state and allowed to remain unless you screwed up and then you were brought back to level 1 and started all over again. My Cousin worked there another year and in that year he saw 2 inmates make it out of the facilty to another prison. Goes to show if they cannot maintain themselves in those conditions just imagine what they are like on the streets of Chicago.

Edited August 12, 2018 by bersaguy

[A.J. Holst]

4 hours ago, gregintenn said:

I agree with the gun part, and will probably get dinged for saying it, but I'd love to see the percentages of these shootings broken down by race. I'd bet better than 90% of them are committed by a single race, and that race isn't near the majority in this country.

I guess the uncomfortable question is why are gangs so successful in recruiting young black men?

[gregintenn]

2 minutes ago, Gotthegoods said:

I guess the uncomfortable question is why are gangs so successful in recruiting young black men?

I can give an honest answer, but I fear I'll sink lower into the moderators' ire.

What the hell. It needs to be said.

As a culture, inner city blacks often breed like alley cats, resulting in a high percentage of children having no idea who their father is; let alone being able to learn from and being disciplined by them. Further, they are not taught a work ethic, and selling drugs paired with government assistance is an easy, labor free way to continue this lifestyle through the generations.

That being said, this problem is NOT unique to black folks, but it looks to me like percentage wise, black people fall into this category more often than other races.

Call me a racist or ban me from the forum, but please, show me the respect of disproving what i've said above first.

[A.J. Holst]

I come back to the why for the behavior.

Replace a family unit with .gov

Take away the need to provide food, clothing, and shelter.

Expand benefits as new dependents are added.

Single mother black families are reaching 70%, increasing from 30% in the 60s due to the war on poverty.

Percentages are rapidly increasing in the White demographic as well as the Hispanic.

Gangs create a family for cast off, fatherless kids of all races. 

Gangs provide employment and income opportunity

Gangs and thug life are glamorized.

Add Chicago's catch and release, ala no real consequences for actions, and you get the Purge every weekend.

[hipower]

Just look at today's entertainment offerings if you have any doubts about gregintenn or Gotthegoods posts.

A very high percentage of African-American oriented tv and movies are all about the thug life, street hustle, and saying that anything goes in the pursuit of the almighty dollar.

According to this entertainment media...guns, drugs, and money rule all life. And to "get your due" is the only way to live. By any means.

Lawyers, Guns and Money...Warren Zevon had it right!

Edited August 12, 2018 by hipower

[bersaguy]

4 hours ago, Gotthegoods said:

I guess the uncomfortable question is why are gangs so successful in recruiting young black men?

That is one thing you will never as far as I know see a racist gang. They will take in all comers as long as you follow the chain on comand your in. Gangs are not all black or all Latino, or Chinese. If your looking for that kind of life they will accept you into their gang. All gangs look at power in numbers. 

[GlockSpock]

On 8/12/2018 at 7:12 PM, bersaguy said:

That is one thing you will never as far as I know see a racist gang. They will take in all comers as long as you follow the chain on comand your in. Gangs are not all black or all Latino, or Chinese. If your looking for that kind of life they will accept you into their gang. All gangs look at power in numbers. 

Sorry, never see a racist gang? Go read into the Crips, Bloods, Latin Kings, Skinheads, etc.

 

[Erik88]

It's probably fair that we at least acknowledge certain facts. 

• Most of us were not born in, or will ever live in the ghetto. We simply don't know what it's like to live there. 
• Being born in the ghetto absolutely puts someone at a huge disadvantage in life. Every aspect of their life is going to be more challenging than most of ours. Blame whomever you want, but it isn't the kids fault. To get out of that situation and become successful in life is going to take nothing short of a miracle. 
• Systemic racism does exist. We know that not all police departments are doing the right thing. Look at what the DOJ found after investigating Ferguson PD. If you think a black person is going to be treated the same during a traffic stop as us, you're not being honest with yourself. I'm not saying every cop will treat them worse, but it does happen. I am fairly certain Philando Castile would be alive today if he were white. 
• All that being said, there is something seriously broken in black communities and it's important we don't ignore the facts. From 1980 to 2008 52.5% of all murders were committed by black people even though they only represent 13% of the population. Even our poorest white neighborhoods(i.e trailer parks) don't see the level of violent crime as inner cities. 93% of all black people murdered are killed by members of the same race. Something is seriously wrong here and I have no idea how we could possibly fix it. I have very little faith there is any government program that could fix this but stopping the behaviors of certain police departments would certainly help.  A friend of mine was a cop for 10 years and just recently quit. He told me last week that in order to catch the worst people in society you had to "violate their rights". Imagine how often that happens across the country. 

according to the US Department of Justice, African Americans accounted for 52.5% of all homicide offenders from 1980 to 2008, with whites 45.3% and "Other" 2.2%. The offending rate for African Americans was almost 8 times higher than whites, and the victim rate 6 times higher. Most homicides were intraracial, with 84% of white victims killed by whites, and 93% of African Americans victims were killed by African Americans.^[49][50][51]

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_States}

 

Edited August 14, 2018 by Erik88

[Omega]

16 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

It's probably fair that we at least acknowledge certain facts. 

• Most of us were not born in, or will ever live in the ghetto. We simply don't know what it's like to live there. 
• Being born in the ghetto absolutely puts someone at a huge disadvantage in life. Every aspect of their life is going to be more challenging than most of ours. Blame whomever you want, but it isn't the kids fault. To get out of that situation and become successful in life is going to take nothing short of a miracle. 
• Systemic racism does exist. We know that not all police departments are doing the right thing. Look at what the DOJ found after investigating Ferguson PD. If you think a black person is going to be treated the same during a traffic stop as us, you're not being honest with yourself. I'm not saying every cop will treat them worse, but it does happen. I am fairly certain Philando Castile would be alive today if he were white. 
• All that being said, there is something seriously broken in black communities and it's important we don't ignore the facts. From 1980 to 2008 52.5% of all murders were committed by black people even though they only represent 13% of the population. Even our poorest white neighborhoods(i.e trailer parks) don't see the level of violent crime as inner cities. 93% of all black people murdered are killed by members of the same race. Something is seriously wrong here and I have no idea how we could possibly fix it. I have very little faith there is any government program that could fix this but stopping the behaviors of certain police departments would certainly help.  A friend of mine was a cop for 10 years and just recently quit. He told me last week that in order to catch the worst people in society you had to "violate their rights". Imagine how often that happens across the country. 

according to the US Department of Justice, African Americans accounted for 52.5% of all homicide offenders from 1980 to 2008, with whites 45.3% and "Other" 2.2%. The offending rate for African Americans was almost 8 times higher than whites, and the victim rate 6 times higher. Most homicides were intraracial, with 84% of white victims killed by whites, and 93% of African Americans victims were killed by African Americans.^[49][50][51]

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_States}

 

No, not born in the ghetto, but also didn't grow up anywhere near middle class.  I joined the Army at 18, knowing dang well my only other options were prison or death, yea a rough neighborhood.  The big difference is that my mom tried to teach me right from wrong, and my friends mother pushed me in the right direction as well.  Many of my friends had parents that, well, were as bad as their kids and looking back, am glad I left as I only know of one friend that made it out, yea, the one with the mother that helped me too. 

The stats support what I always say, you put enough people of one race into a group and they will kill each other.  Not many whites mix with blacks in the ghetto, those that do must be as bad or worse to survive or become one of the outliers in those crime stats.  The only fix I can see working is from the inside, parents need to control their kids, however they need to, and break away from the something for nothing mentality and show their kids that working for what they get is a much better solution than dealing drugs, robbing and stealing.

[gregintenn]

49 minutes ago, Erik88 said:

It's probably fair that we at least acknowledge certain facts. 

• Most of us were not born in, or will ever live in the ghetto. We simply don't know what it's like to live there. 
• Being born in the ghetto absolutely puts someone at a huge disadvantage in life. Every aspect of their life is going to be more challenging than most of ours. Blame whomever you want, but it isn't the kids fault. To get out of that situation and become successful in life is going to take nothing short of a miracle. 
• Systemic racism does exist. We know that not all police departments are doing the right thing. Look at what the DOJ found after investigating Ferguson PD. If you think a black person is going to be treated the same during a traffic stop as us, you're not being honest with yourself. I'm not saying every cop will treat them worse, but it does happen. I am fairly certain Philando Castile would be alive today if he were white. 
• All that being said, there is something seriously broken in black communities and it's important we don't ignore the facts. From 1980 to 2008 52.5% of all murders were committed by black people even though they only represent 13% of the population. Even our poorest white neighborhoods(i.e trailer parks) don't see the level of violent crime as inner cities. 93% of all black people murdered are killed by members of the same race. Something is seriously wrong here and I have no idea how we could possibly fix it. I have very little faith there is any government program that could fix this but stopping the behaviors of certain police departments would certainly help.  A friend of mine was a cop for 10 years and just recently quit. He told me last week that in order to catch the worst people in society you had to "violate their rights". Imagine how often that happens across the country. 

according to the US Department of Justice, African Americans accounted for 52.5% of all homicide offenders from 1980 to 2008, with whites 45.3% and "Other" 2.2%. The offending rate for African Americans was almost 8 times higher than whites, and the victim rate 6 times higher. Most homicides were intraracial, with 84% of white victims killed by whites, and 93% of African Americans victims were killed by African Americans.^[49][50][51]

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_States}

 

Imagine you are a police officer. Given the stats you just quoted, you'd be foolish to not look at a young, black man with a bit more scrutiny than other folks. To fight crime, one has to go where the crime is and look for those who are committing the crimes.

Thankfully, there isn't much crime where I live.

[bersaguy]

1 hour ago, gregintenn said:

Imagine you are a police officer. Given the stats you just quoted, you'd be foolish to not look at a young, black man with a bit more scrutiny than other folks. To fight crime, one has to go where the crime is and look for those who are committing the crimes.

Thankfully, there isn't much crime where I live.

I agree greg but when you have a mayor telling the police comissioner where the police are allowed to work and what areas to stay away from you have basically tie the hands of the police............JMHO

[gregintenn]

15 minutes ago, bersaguy said:

I agree greg but when you have a mayor telling the police comissioner where the police are allowed to work and what areas to stay away from you have basically tie the hands of the police............JMHO

Yeah...the mayor is a big part of Chicago's problem. This has nothing to do with his race.

[bersaguy]

3 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

Yeah...the mayor is a big part of Chicago's problem. This has nothing to do with his race.

It appears he does not care about his race of he would do something to stop the killings. It also appears that President Obama didn't care about his race either because during his 8 years in office he did nothing to try and fix the problem either. It apeared that he even tried to avoid doing anything when the subject was brought to his attention many times...........JMHO 

[DaveTN]

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

It's probably fair that we at least acknowledge certain facts. 

Okay lets do that.

 

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

Most of us were not born in, or will ever live in the ghetto. We simply don't know what it's like to live there. 

Being born in the ghetto absolutely puts someone at a huge disadvantage in life. Every aspect of their life is going to be more challenging than most of ours. Blame whomever you want, but it isn't the kids fault. To get out of that situation and become successful in life is going to take nothing short of a miracle. 

So? Plenty of people come from the Ghetto, go to school, college, get good jobs and are productive law abiding citizens. They don't have a victim mentality.

 

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

• Systemic racism does exist. 

That’s not a fact. Certainly there are Officers who may be racist (both black and white); but the system isn’t. I worked in that system; I know that. I personally know a lot of cops; most aren’t racists.

Around 30,000 people are arrested everyday. There are around 700,000 911 calls a day. There are over a million full time officers, twice that number if you count part time and feds. So certainly you will be able to do your research and find bad cops.

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

We know that not all police departments are doing the right thing. Look at what the DOJ found after investigating Ferguson PD. If you think a black person is going to be treated the same during a traffic stop as us, you're not being honest with yourself. I'm not saying every cop will treat them worse, but it does happen. I am fairly certain Philando Castile would be alive today if he were white.

Every Police Department is different and their training is different. It’s easier to be a Police Officer than it used to be; fewer of the good guys want the job.

Saying a black person isn't going to be treated the same on a traffic stop isn't fact either. Certainly a black man will be treated the same on a traffic stop.  People of all races will haul drugs, drive drunk, fight cops and run from cops. Saying that cops treat blacks any different than whites is a racist statement. Especially when in many of these cases everyone involved is black from the perp, to the cop, to the Chief of Police to the Mayor.

I worked mostly nights. I usually didn’t know who was in a car until I had it stopped and looked inside. When you are a criminal going to jail being a victim is a card you play; if you can.

Whether it is the average citizen, HCP holder, Cop, or armed robber, if they are pointing a gun at you and telling you want to do, and you don’t do it; chances are good you will be shot.

1 hour ago, Erik88 said:

• All that being said, there is something seriously broken in black communities and it's important we don't ignore the facts. From 1980 to 2008 52.5% of all murders were committed by black people even though they only represent 13% of the population. Even our poorest white neighborhoods(i.e trailer parks) don't see the level of violent crime as inner cities. 93% of all black people murdered are killed by members of the same race. Something is seriously wrong here and I have no idea how we could possibly fix it. I have very little faith there is any government program that could fix this but stopping the behaviors of certain police departments would certainly help.  A friend of mine was a cop for 10 years and just recently quit. He told me last week that in order to catch the worst people in society you had to "violate their rights". Imagine how often that happens across the country. 

Money can help fix the problem; that’s jobs. Most people want to work instead of live off the government.

I never had a situation where I needed to violate criminal’s rights to arrest them; that absolutely isn’t fact. You quoting your friend is meaningless without him explaining what it meant. We have had former cops on this very forum talk about how corrupt cops are. They rarely go into detail of specific events; although I’m sure it happens. I feel sorry for them, I came from a highly trained PD with a good reputation.

I have in, my own city, sat and listened to people tells stories about being stopped by our Officers. During the story I realized it was me they were talking about (cops all look alike, they didn’t recognized me out of uniform). I’ve told them I was the cop and things didn’t go down the way they are saying. It’s embarrassing when they get caught in a lie and they usually laughed it off. I’m sure it happens all the time with internet stories that can’t be verified.

I support my local Police, and thank them for their service. I have walked in their shoes and until they prove different; they get the benefit of the doubt. I have many times on here said when a cop was wrong. I make no apologies for support the Police.

You are the only person on this forum that has launched a personal attack on me by calling me by name and claiming I would side with the cops before I ever even posted in the thread. Anyone that knows me or has read my posts know that is not true. Why would you do that?

[bersaguy]

I have not lived in a large city such as Nashville in many many years so I can't speak for the police officers in Nashville. I can speak for the officers in about 5 small towns over the last 20+ years and everytime I have been stopped I have been treated with respect regardless of the race of the officer.

They have always been traffic stops for some reason or another. Got stopped a month ago for seat belt violation which once the officer saw that I had my lap belt fastened he asked if I had a reason for not having the shoulder harness connected and I presented him with a letter from my doctor explaining why and he said that was a very good reason and handed the letter back to me and told me to have a nice day. I thanked him and we parted ways.

I got stopped about 3 times for that over a period of a year here in town and each time the officer was very professional and each time the result was the same. I'm sure each time I got stopped they ran my tags on my Jeep before approaching my Jeep so I'm sure they knew I have an HCP but it was never brought up so I never mentioned it either. When the officer approached my Jeep I had both hands on the top section of the steering wheel in clear sight. I do wish my Jeep didn't have the after market window tinting and I have considered having it removed. That has been my experiences over the past several years. Oh yea, I do have a window sticker on the back window of my Jeep from NRA and another one that reads "Gun Safety means using both hands" I have thought about removing them but I figure, by now all of the officers in this town can recognize my Jeep by them because there is about 4 more Red Jeeps like mine here in town.