Thinking of Bugging Out to Public Land?

[Ronald_55]

Wrote a post on this tonight and thought I would share it and my back up math.

http://leveledsurvival.com/2018/03/15/bugging-out-to-the-woods/

 

Just to extrapolate since someone (not on TGO) said it was "not that bad", I did some math:

Shtf and the population of Nashville TN (684,410) decides to spread out over 100 square miles. Let's say 50% make it and not count the previous population of those 100 square miles. That leaves 3,422 people per square mile. Even if that was virgin land, no way could it sustain them. Even at 1000 miles that is 342 per square mile. Tucon AZ at 50% over 1000 square miles is 265 per square mile. Upscale this to some place like New York City. 8.538 million people at 50% over 1000 square miles is 4269 people per square mile. It is a concern if you do the math. All those people that survive have to go somewhere.

[monkeylizard]

In a serious SHTF with mass population migrations, survival rate won't be anywhere near 50%. But it's still an issue. A specific amount of land can only support so many people and if agriculture is the plan, that takes time to plant, grow, harvest, and store. SHTF in late fall, or winter, and kiss that plan goodbye.

[Ronald_55]

13 minutes ago, monkeylizard said:

In a serious SHTF with mass population migrations, survival rate won't be anywhere near 50%. But it's still an issue. A specific amount of land can only support so many people and if agriculture is the plan, that takes time to plant, grow, harvest, and store. SHTF in late fall, or winter, and kiss that plan goodbye.

Yeah 50% is high for longer term, but for the first exodus it is a nice round number to use. 

If agriculture is the plan, some areas have a lot of pavement to bust up before they even approach having enough acres.

Honestly, the best scenario for the survivors is a sudden massive population drop that leaves the infrastructure and food stores intact. Without that the food will be hoarded quickly and lots of the population will go feral. You know how groups love to destroy stuff for no reason. They would trash the very stuff they need to survive. 

[Murgatroy]

I read a study once, it focused on the Eastern Seaboard, if the migration begins, by foot, 95% of them will die before coming over the Cumberland Plateau. The Appalachian Mountains will be very dangerous. That is of course not counting the existing population.

Honestly I think that most urbanites will be too busy looting to worry about survival. History has shown this time and time again. It is my plan to bug in for a month minimum in my home. Defend and survive. Depending on the disaster, either 90% of the population will have ended themselves in that month, or order will be restored.

[RED333]

9 hours ago, Murgatroy said:

It is my plan to bug in for a month minimum in my home. Defend and survive.

This has been my plan all along.