Some Interesting Crime Stats

[pop pop]

Something many of you veteran LEOs no doubt already know:

“The US didn’t have a spike in violent crime in 2016.

A handful of neighborhoods in the US did. A mere five neighborhoods in Chicago supplied one-third of the increase in violent crime in 2016. 

Murders in the U.S. rose nearly 9% last year, and one-third of that increase came from just a few neighborhoods in Chicago, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the FBI’s annual 2016 publication, Crime in the United States.

While violent crime (homicide, rape, assault, and robbery) also rose nationwide from 2015 to 2016 — over 4% — the data show the increase was not uniform, but rather concentrated in cities like Chicago and Baltimore.

Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., meanwhile, saw “meaningful declines in violence [that] have been sustained since the 1990s.”
This means the US doesn't have a violent crime problem.  We have a violent zip code problem. 

This, of course, is hardly news.  Anyone watching the country knows that the worst of criminality falls in a handful of places, typically poor neighborhoods in big cities, and the root of the problem is gang violence and turf wars.  John Lott published a study in 2016 using 2014 crime statistics finding that murder in the US is very concentrated by location.

In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, 54% of counties (with 11% of the population) have no murders.  69% of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20% of the population. These counties account for only 4% of all murders in the country.

The worst 1% of counties have 19% of the population and 37% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 47% of the population and account for 68% of murders. As shown in figure 2, over half of murders occurred in only 2% of counties.

Murder has gotten more concentrated in fewer places.  John Lott again:
Murders actually used to be even more concentrated. From 1977 to 2000, on average 73 percent of counties in any give year had zero murders.

Criminologist David Weisburg of George Mason University criminologist, released a study in 2015 that described what he called the “law of crime concentration,” and “the criminality of place”: a disproportionate amount of any city’s violent crime occurs in a small geographic area of the city.  His data showed:
Weisburg found that in large cities, 50% of crime occurs on just 4% to 6% of a city’s streets, while 0.8% to 1.6% of streets produce one-quarter of all crime.

In many concealed carry classes you're dutifully told there's no such thing as a bad neighborhood that you can avoid to have no risk of violent attack.  While I agree with the sentiment that you should always be aware of your surroundings and that lightning can strike in odd places, these statistics show that statement is just wrong.  There are bad neighborhoods, and your chances of being involved in a violent crime are much worse in some places.  If you don't have to go there, don't go.  

Complicating Weisburg and Lott's findings is the side effect of protests against police that have police vowing to have a lighter presence in the areas that need them the most.

A Pew Research Center poll from January 2017 showed that an overwhelming number of police officers say widespread protests following high-profile killings of black suspects have made police less willing to conduct basic police work, such as stopping and questioning suspicious people in high-crime neighborhoods, and using an appropriate level of force to diffuse a situation.

In Baltimore, violent crime rates were going down until 2015, when police officers “pulled back from a more proactive approach” following widespread city riots after the death of Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old black man who suffered a severe spinal injury while being transported in a police van on April 1, 2015, and died one week later.

Violence in Baltimore has stayed historically high following the riots, with arrests plummeting, shootings soaring, and the police force itself getting smaller.

One thing that has been proven to reduce crime rates is more proactive policing.   Yet the "Ferguson Effect" has caused an increasing reluctance of police to go into those neighborhoods, and more reluctant to carry out everyday tasks of policing. You might have noticed that the left is currently lobbying for all of the things that make the murder rate worse.

Remember: it's not gun control we need.  It's zip code control.”

[leroy]

Pop... Thanks for posting this great article... Interestin stuff, indeed... I think this is a very interesting and insightful thought....

Quote

...In many concealed carry classes you're dutifully told there's no such thing as a bad neighborhood that you can avoid to have no risk of violent attack.  While I agree with the sentiment that you should always be aware of your surroundings and that lightning can strike in odd places, these statistics show that statement is just wrong.  There are bad neighborhoods, and your chances of being involved in a violent crime are much worse in some places.  If you don't have to go there, don't go.  ... 

This is the "elephant in the room" that no one wants ta talk about; as it smacks of all the forbidden issues; poor neighborhoods, dope, gangs, hooliganism, tribalism, and all the other things that are forbidden today... There are, indeed, bad neighborhoods where there are bad people... Like Pop says, "... If ya don't have to go ther, don't go..."... Excellent advice, indeed...

Thanks for posting this insightful info...

leroy...

[ReeferMac]

While not liberally correct, frankly I'm glad to see the situation becoming what it is in those parts of the country.

You can make up news stories, hire 'experts', and have all kinds of propaganda, but for the average person, facts are facts, they believe what they see. You are now seeing some elements of these communities (aka Baltimore) coming forward and saying they want more police presence, they don't want the police to step back, and the activists and protesters who pushed for reduced police activity in the community did not represent nor speak for them.

I say, you reap what you sow.

You stood there in silence when the officer knocked on your door and asked if you knew anything about the gunshots that happened across the street last night.

You stood there in silence while neighborhood kids conducted drug sales in the open.

You stood there in silence while prostitutes walk up and down your street soliciting customers.

You stood there in silence while bands of thugs played 'the knockout game' in tourist parts of your city.

You stood there in silence.... until it started to affect you personally.

Well, it's about damned time you stood up and said something. Sorry to see it took you so long. You knew what needed to be done to fix the problem before, you just weren't willing to do it. So it had to get THIS bad before you could break your silence. Now stand up and say something the next time someone asks if you know anything. It's YOUR community, YOUR neighbors, YOUR police, YOUR problem, YOUR chance to fix it.

 

... And hey, show of hands, how many people think the crime situation factored into the decision for Discovery Channel to relocate their HQ to Knoxville, vs. moving the Knox operation to Baltimore?

[hipower]

59 minutes ago, leroy said:

Pop... Thanks for posting this great article... Interestin stuff, indeed... I think this is a very interesting and insightful thought....

This is the "elephant in the room" that no one wants ta talk about; as it smacks of all the forbidden issues; poor neighborhoods, dope, gangs, hooliganism, tribalism, and all the other things that are forbidden today... There are, indeed, bad neighborhoods where there are bad people... Like Pop says, "... If ya don't have to go ther, don't go..."... Excellent advice, indeed...

Thanks for posting this insightful info...

leroy...

I also thank PP for this posting. And Leroy is on point with his assessment.

Political correctness calls for us to bury our heads in the sand and ignore the problems. Until we have the courage to stand up as a nation and say "enough" this will get no better.

Law Enforcement needs to be allowed to do what's necessary. Period. I say the downhill slide began when "profiling" became the Left's cause of the week. 

[Raoul]

Source?

[btq96r]

30 minutes ago, hipower said:

Law Enforcement needs to be allowed to do what's necessary. Period. I say the downhill slide began when "profiling" became the Left's cause of the week. 

Necessary is the favorite euphemism for unconstitutional when it comes to matters of safety and security. 

I'm all for police exercising their lawful authority...but the lawful part must always come before the authority.

[hipower]

11 minutes ago, btq96r said:

Necessary is the favorite euphemism for unconstitutional when it comes to matters of safety and security. 

I'm all for police exercising their lawful authority...but the lawful part must always come before the authority.

But when laws are subverted for political correctness no one wins but those in power.

Edited January 13, 2018 by hipower

[Omega]

The original link is here, http://thesilicongraybeard.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-us-didnt-have-spike-in-violent.html

I agree with @ReeferMac This line of thinking has merit, you need to police your own neighborhood.  While the protesters, who are mostly outsiders, want less police, the opposite is actually needed.  But there are other factors, such as what was coined as "The Ferguson Effect", while I'm sure many LEOs won't publicly admit it, it has to weigh on the way they do their jobs.

[ReeferMac]

Exactly. How many times is there a shooting in a residential area, cops interviews dozens of people, nobody saw nuthin. The guy that gets shot, didn't see whodunnit. You, me, and officer McGee know that's a crock O' BS. See Something, Say Something!

Little Johnny was over there hanging out w/ his crackhead friends the other day, and I saw some other kids breaking into the basement of the abandon house a couple hours before and....  

NOW the cop's have a lead.

 

[Sidecarist]

The comments about bad neighborhoods speak directly to the thought that your personal risk goes up with EACH of these...

Going to Stupid Places, with Stupid People, doing Stupid Things. Sometimes good people go to Stupid Places for good reasons, but you can almost always avoid the other two. 

Don't be Stupid!

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Sidecarist

[hipower]

I agree, totally. I just need to follow that advice myself.

I freely admit to having been where I shouldn't have been several times. Not necessarily doing bad, evil, or unlawful things; but could have used better judgement at those times.

Sadly, several of them involved the 2 biggest problems for a man...women and alcohol.

[Sidecarist]

59 minutes ago, hipower said:

Sadly, several of them involved the 2 biggest problems for a man...women and alcohol.

Wrong headed thinking that is!

[Omega]

1 hour ago, hipower said:

I agree, totally. I just need to follow that advice myself.

I freely admit to having been where I shouldn't have been several times. Not necessarily doing bad, evil, or unlawful things; but could have used better judgement at those times.

Sadly, several of them involved the 2 biggest problems for a man...women and alcohol.

Many a male can relate, and probably a few females too.

[GeorgeandSugar]

The story could go deeper and drill down on the “why” and that will explain the root causes and provide insight to the appropriate public policies to address underlying reasons for what is happening in these neighborhoods. Chances are you’ll find crap public policies likely promoted by left of center politicians. Ironic, don’t hear a word from politicians like Rahaman Emanuel on what policy initiatives the city is launching to address the problems in Chicago. What you do read is policies to encourage illegal immigration through these ID cards he and the city council are instituting. Why the black community year after year casts a vote for these politicians is disquieting, or is it really the righteous and sanctimonious white liberals, the elitists left who turn a blind eye to the plight of the black community for their own selfish means, whatever that might be? Where is Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpen and the BLM crowd and our they putting their money where their mouth is? Nope, at least, as far as, I have read! Maybe Jeff Bezo can pony up some money (33 million) like he is going to do for the DACA kids. Left of center politicians seldom (how about never) offer any public policies worth a damn, that work or even effective. When the black community decides to stop being a willing pawn and vote for real change; then and only then, will they start to see change in their communities. That will be the wake-up call to all these flagrant politicians.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

 

[pop pop]

Take Nashville. The evening and morning news starts out, "Shooting in North Nashville. If memory serves me, channel 5 had a program, 4 weeks ago, about "Violence in Nashville."  Never once was the elephant in the room even mentioned. The Elephant in the  room, "A large  number of the murders took place, in the minority communities, and in North Nashville." They put pics of all the people killed in Nashville last year, and yes it was terrible. Sensationalism at it's best! The majority, minorities. No one even mentioned that fact, nor what they were going to do about it.

Georgeandsugar, you are correct, left wing democrats(mayor), in Nashville, have no clue, or inclination, to do something meaningful about violence in Nashville. They are too worried about mass transit and soccer at the fairgrounds.   

No doubt, the city of Nashville could do just as, the NRA, the Judiciary, and the state court and prison system did in Richmond Va. They could crack down on that area and stop "some if not most" of that carnage coming from a couple different areas around Nashville. Richmond Virginia did it and so did Corker clean up Chattanooga when he was mayor there. It is sad to say, but Chattanooga is slowly drifting back in the wrong direction again.

ReeferMac, hit on a good point in his previous post. The neighborhoods need to be behind the Police and the people living in those areas need to be helpful and not stick their heads in the sand.  

Just my opinion!!!!

Edited January 14, 2018 by pop pop

[n0rlf]

As usual I think the question of why is almost always answered by following the money! With power comes money, therefore the politicians want to stay in "Power" to make more money. 

Now to beak that cycle is the mission of the day. It is a tough mission indeed as those with anything rarely are willing to give it up. Politicians need to learn that they are not in "Power" anymore. They need to return to the position of representative. One best way to accomplish that is term limits. If they will not institute them then the voters have to by kicking them out after one term. 

It is not rocket science but we will continue to see politicians voting for their best interests as long as people keep pulling the levers stupidly. Between crooked elected officials and political correctness we are headed downhill quickly. It is not considered PC to point out the bad areas of towns and the cause for them. It is not racist but try pointing out the stats and you will quickly find yourself labeled as a racist.

I was recently in Chatanooga on the south side and it is going downhill very fast. Looked a lot like some of Detroit. Very sad. I recently did a swap deal with a Detective on the CPD. He mentioned that no one he knows goes into Chatanooga after dark any more and rarely during the day now. He said it is due to the section eight housing having ruined so many nce neighborhoods. Now that is all hearsay but from what we saw I would think it is on point. 

Stats can show a lot of things but the trick is to make them show what you want. So if you think about it what better way to get more money than to show you need it to get the neighborhood back. Problem is the money gets sidetracked which is not really a problem as they just ask for more. Pretty soon it happens so often no one questions that.

So as I forgot to add that this is the same behavior that is used in our battle for 2nd Ammendment rights. Complain about how we need more taken away, then when noone says anything take more. It is a vicious self fulfilling ideology. So the same thoughts and use of stats are used against us in the battle over our rights. So those that ignore the real reasons for the crime are the same that try to use those stats to remove our rights. It is about time we took that into account and started using stts to our advantage. Of course that always leads to the question "how"? 

Edited January 14, 2018 by n0rlf
Finished my thoughts