Trump / HPA

[mikegideon]

1 minute ago, Hershmeister said:

Hughes amendment gone
 

The motherlode!!! 

[btq96r]

2 minutes ago, mikegideon said:

Only 5 million of us. We are real good at blocking stuff. Gonna be a different deal on the offensive side.

Meh...stop thinking in terms of membership numbers. 

NRA needs members (private and industry) to keep funding their operations and lifestyle standards...in turn, conservative politicians, or center-left politicians in gun friendly areas, need the NRA to help fund their campaigns and put up ad's in their media markets, along with the endorsement that they would be scared to let go to a primary challenger.   The Democrats have no venue to stop things aside from a filibuster in the Senate.  Tuck gun stuff into other bills, spending authorizations (especially things that constrain the ATF), and it can pass easy enough.  Hell, Democrats might even be okay with it passing so they can fund raise off of it.

Some social media targeting, a few interviews by the NRA heads on key venues...both dropping some not so subtle hints that the NRA expects a Republican Congress, the Judiciary Committees especially, to action the 2A part of the MAGA plan.

Look at this as a behind the scenes political issue and a road to results starts to form.

[mikegideon]

4 minutes ago, btq96r said:

Meh...stop thinking in terms of membership numbers. 

NRA needs members (private and industry) to keep funding their operations and lifestyle standards...in turn, conservative politicians, or center-left politicians in gun friendly areas, need the NRA to help fund their campaigns and put up ad's in their media markets, along with the endorsement that they would be scared to let go to a primary challenger.   The Democrats have no venue to stop things aside from a filibuster in the Senate.  Tuck gun stuff into other bills, spending authorizations (especially things that constrain the ATF), and it can pass easy enough.  Hell, Democrats might even be okay with it passing so they can fund raise off of it.

Some social media targeting, a few interviews by the NRA heads on key venues...both dropping some not so subtle hints that the NRA expects a Republican Congress, the Judiciary Committees especially, to action the 2A part of the MAGA plan.

Look at this as a behind the scenes political issue and a road to results starts to form.

Not saying the NRA won't push for stuff. Just saying that national legislation can be real hard to get done. When it does, it's usually hysteria driven. 

[Garufa]

I wouldn't count too much on the NRA expending a lot of resources on trying to repeal NFA laws and regulations.  They have their hands full nation wide just supporting basic ownership rights.

The fight is not in Washington.  It's in every state and local government where the anti's have focused their resources.

 

[ehull20000]

I don't blame anyone for putting off the purchase of a suppressor with this legislation being so possible in the short term, but I'm very glad there were many people that did endure the costs associated with ownership and thuse demonstrated that suppressors are not an evil tool of the assassin.  Rather, they provided yet another example of how gun owners are among the least likely to comit crimes in america which gives this legislation a real chance, even if it does have to get slipped into a larger bill to get passed.  

I am looking forward to more suppressors in my collection.

 

[WarPig]

Damn y'all I stepped out to go to a wedding for a minute. This escalated quickly


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[Currently]

23 hours ago, Fourtyfive said:

I believe the HPA says suppressors will be treated the same as long guns.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/3799

I smell refund ! 

There will be no refund, it will be a credit on your taxes.  

Buy two suppressors and knock four hundred dollars off what you have to pay.

That is what was explained to me.   

[Oh Shoot]

10 hours ago, Currently said:

There will be no refund, it will be a credit on your taxes.  

Buy two suppressors and knock four hundred dollars off what you have to pay.

That is what was explained to me.   

Since this bill will have to be reintroduced in the new congress, I imagine the date will be changed. The October 22, 2015 is when this one was first submitted, which will remain dead in the current congress.

- OS

Edited November 14, 2016 by Oh Shoot

[Spiffy]

On 11/12/2016 at 9:24 AM, xsubsailor said:

 I believe it's legal to manufacture a weapon for your own use, so if they are treated as a long gun maybe it would also be legal to make your own. If it turns out this way we may also see a lot of "kits" on the market.(Similar to 80% lowers)

There is a court case going forward in Kansas over something similar. I can't remember the name of the defendant but it should be on any of the NFA boards. Might be worth your time to look into it.

[Oh Shoot]

2 hours ago, Spiffy said:

There is a court case going forward in Kansas over something similar. I can't remember the name of the defendant but it should be on any of the NFA boards. Might be worth your time to look into it.

Hey, it's legal in TN to make your own silencer (or SBR/SBS/AOW) without a stamp too, but it's funny how the Feds don't agree.

- OS

Edited November 16, 2016 by Oh Shoot

[Omega]

19 minutes ago, Oh Shoot said:

Hey, it's legal in TN to make your own silencer (or SBR/SBS/AOW) without a stamp too, but it's funny how the Feds don't agree.

- OS

Yea, I'm in Denver and have passed warehouses which house more pot than I've seen on highly publicized drug busts...I think the Feds frown upon this too.

[Oh Shoot]

2 minutes ago, Omega said:

Yea, I'm in Denver and have passed warehouses which house more pot than I've seen on highly publicized drug busts...I think the Feds frown upon this too.

Prob is that they don't prosecute that, but the ATF apparently is still happy to.

- OS

[Capbyrd]

Prices won't drop like y'all are saying but they will drop a bit.  Gary Hughes has said that only 8% of FFLs are able to carry NFA products.  That means that just the available dealers would expand over tenfold.  Its my belief that supply would be overwhelmed by demand instantly and gouging or just MSRP pricing would be the norm until all of the manufacturers could gear up.  

And yes the market would be flooded with cheaper cans.  But do we really want more hunter town arms? 

 

As for innovation, most of the innovation in baffle tech is at a plateau.  We might not see anything change for decades.  But the real innovation these days is in mounting systems.  The Wolverine is a perfect example of this.  

 

 

And don't get your hopes up about this bill.  This one is already dead.  I think it has just a few more months before it will have to be reintroduced.  Then we start over.  And the tax credit line will likely be removed.  Not a great chance of it remaining if the bill has a chance to pass.  

 

If we as a community want to get a bill like this passed, we need to make the antis in charge stop looking at cans as fun toys and make them see it as true protection, not just for the shooters, but for the people that live around ranges.  And we certainly don't need to remind them that we could make our own.  They would never let it pass on that alone.  Ghost silencer kills hundreds would be the next headline. 

[Fourtyfive]

Hey, I've got a Huntertown Arms can and love it ! Why the knock ? I assume you know something I don't ?

[Capbyrd]

8 minutes ago, Fourtyfive said:

Hey, I've got a Huntertown Arms can and love it ! Why the knock ? I assume you know something I don't ?

If you're happy that's awesome.  I hope it stays that way.  But HTA has a really bad rep from exploded tubes to just horrid customer service. They've been known to take people's cans back for warranty work and then stop responding for 8 months.  Or just not respond in the first place.  

[Fourtyfive]

Wow, guess I'm lucky. No probs here, works perfect, sounds good and easy as heck to take apart and clean. Guess I just take good care of it.

[Garufa]

So if there was no longer a $200 tax on suppressors why would manufacturers and dealers not just jack the price to line their own pockets with all that extra money the buyers would have?

Edited November 17, 2016 by Garufa

[Capbyrd]

34 minutes ago, Garufa said:

So if there was no longer a $200 tax on suppressors why would manufacturers and dealers not just jack the price to line their own pockets with all that extra money the buyers would have?

It would take a coordinated effort from all of them.    Otherwise, one drops their price and outsells the rest in spades. 

[DaveTN]

46 minutes ago, Garufa said:

So if there was no longer a $200 tax on suppressors why would manufacturers and dealers not just jack the price to line their own pockets with all that extra money the buyers would have?

Well they could try (they could try price fixing with anything). But they will be consumables just like handguards, grips, lowers, etc. Use them and throw them away after they are shot out.  I think a very large percentage of shooters would buy them; but not when the prices are high because of the very limited demand and the amount of legal paperwork and wait times involved.

Laser sintering printers have already produced suppressors. As technology moves forward in printing, machining and extruding; costs will drop. The only thing keeping the price of suppressors up right now is the BATF.

[TGO David]

This is a pretty good, short video featuring Adam Kraut, Esq. going over what he thinks the election of Trump really means for us as relates to the HPA.

 

[WarPig]

13 hours ago, Garufa said:

So if there was no longer a $200 tax on suppressors why would manufacturers and dealers not just jack the price to line their own pockets with all that extra money the buyers would have?

They could initially, but it wouldn't last. This is simple industry economics. Right now there is a balance with supply and demand. If they take them off the NFA list, there will be a very short period (probably a year) where the supply will not meet the demand. Some short sighted companies will spike the prices as the demand curve shifts up. However, there is a very low barrier of entry into the market and other companies that do similar work will realize that the product is relatively cheap to create and since there is not room for much innovation in the future it would not be hard for a company to recreate the product. Once those low barriers of entry allow more competition, the supply line slides down and eventually makes for a more competitive industry, requiring manufacturers to either make a better product, make them cheaper for the consumer, or both. And those companies that spike the prices will lose customer loyalty due to the fact they temporarily screwed their customers (ex. Cheaper Than Dirt did this with AR mags and 22lr rounds during panic, and lost a lot of revenue in the long run.)

I think we will absolutely see more companies taking this on, more quality products at better pricing, better customer service, better mounts, etc.in order for the companies to survive in the industry.  And nobody will be paying Advanced Armament $75 for a piston or $150 for a BRAKEOUT comp. 

[Esko 270]

Decisions decisions,I've been stocking up for for a while and now it's time for a can. No doubt about it the 200 tax stamp is insane not to mention the 250 for a trust and then 700 to 1000 for the can,but any good gun nut has at least one or two pieces in the safe worth more than that right? I've tried to talk my self out of it but it's not going well at all. It will be my first and all I know is what I have read on the Internet and here,I have the Fnx tactical and thinking the osprey so I can use it on a 9 as well. 

[TGO David]

7 hours ago, Esko 270 said:

Decisions decisions,I've been stocking up for for a while and now it's time for a can. No doubt about it the 200 tax stamp is insane not to mention the 250 for a trust and then 700 to 1000 for the can,but any good gun nut has at least one or two pieces in the safe worth more than that right? I've tried to talk my self out of it but it's not going well at all. It will be my first and all I know is what I have read on the Internet and here,I have the Fnx tactical and thinking the osprey so I can use it on a 9 as well. 

Here's the way I look at this:

The HPA, if it even happens, is going to be at least a year or two out.  If it does pass, hopefully manufacturers will have ramped up their production schedules ahead of it and stocked up enough to keep supply channels flowing, otherwise we will see a pretty serious shortage on the front end of the HPA's sunrise.

If you want a suppressor sooner than 2-3 years from now and have the means to do it, I would go ahead.  There is really no guarantee that the HPA will become reality anyway.

 

[dcloudy777]

HPA would usher in the biggest changing force in the industry since the invention of the metallic cartridge.  Suppressor, firearm, cartridge, bullet design will see gigantic changes.

[Dolomite_supafly]

I won't buy a single silencer but what I will do is build a bunch. A person can buy every part and screw everything together, only took you need is a drill.