MacGyver

It’s worth noting that the above may be disinformation. I’ve linked the DoD briefing notes from Friday where they’re specifically asked - and the current head of CENTCOM says he has no knowledge of any leadership of true IRGC being targeted or killed. https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2112178/marine-corps-general-kenneth-f-mckenzie-jr-commander-us-central-command-holds-a/ It’s also worth noting that this is there first time this name has been mentioned in either Farsi or Arabic media.

Several reasons. The CDC failed to leverage the work others had done and developed their own test. That test was later found to have problems with reliability after shipping. So it set us back a couple of weeks. The administration does share a lot of blame for failing to treat this with the seriousness it deserved up until earlier this week. Now, tests are being severely rationed because while we've got plenty of actual tests at this point- we don't have the reagents to operationalize them at anywhere near full capacity. Specifically, we don't have enough RNA isolation and RT-PCR kits. So, we're starting way behind the curve. We don't actually know how far behind the curve we are. We'll know in the next few days. You made the right decision staying home. You don't want to be stuck 2000 miles from home.

Prayers for you and your wife. Keep us apprised. I was also just notified of someone who has tested positive and is not doing well at all. He’s six days in the hospital - and just got results back this evening. He’s older and has several mitigating conditions.

I expect you’ll see national restrictions and flights grounded in the next few days. Even with as little testing as we’re doing, you’re still seeing cases double every three days. This is the exponential doubling we’re worried about - and lack of testing likely means we’re a few days closer to Italy than we think. We may be too late - but on our current path, estimates suggest we could have 9.4 million sick and 1 million dead at the same time. Note that we have 95,000 ICU beds in the US - and this load would suggest we’d need 460,000. This isn’t a guess or some worst case scenario. This is math coupled with what we’ve seen in Italy - another first world country. Seriously. If you can hole up for a couple weeks - consider it your civic duty.

I found it quite funny that the only “antibacterial” cleaners on the shelves were the ones made out of stuff like orange peels, and essential oils and all that stuff. I guess it’s sort of the same as “there are no atheists in foxholes.”

I’ve offered to shop for all of my neighbors - all of whom are older. It’s the least I can do - they’re all like grandparents to my kids. Don’t disregard your mental health in all of this. It’s okay to take a step back and step away from stuff like social media, the TV, and even TGO for a bit if you need to. It’s going to be important to protect your sanity in the coming days. Find someone you can reach out to and check in on. Buddy up with someone and check in regularly. If you need someone to chat with check in on here - or shoot me a PM. I’m certain we could get a group of people willing to reach out. For those of faith - pray. Find solace in a community of faith. If you or someone you know gets sick - let us know. We’ll get through this. It’s going to be tough. We’re going to need everyone to do their part. Take heart.

Went to pick up a few things for my wife this evening. As long as you weren’t looking for toilet paper or potatoes??, everything seemed quite well stocked. Walked straight to the self checkout and was on my way. I hope it stays that way.

Be sure to post a link if they make it available.

It’s absolutely the right decision. I hate it for the city of Nashville that’ll probably lose out on ~$30M? in related revenue. This is a giant convention - but certainly not the only one canceling. There are a lot of small businesses that are really going to hurt. If you’ve got a restaurant or small business you frequent - this might be a great time to purchase a gift card or two to use when this is over.

The world is an awfully small place You might have thought we would have learned that on September 11th. In America, we’ve largely been conditioned to be pandemic voyeurs - maybe noticing as somewhere else suffers. That’s about to change. Look out for yourselves - but check in on that elderly neighbor. Maybe the older couple down the street whose kids have moved away. The single parent who’s just trying to make ends meet. We’re in this together - that has always been - and always will be America’s greatest strength.

That's it. There's not a hospital system on the planet that has the burst capacity to handle what's happening in Italy right now. The only way you keep people from dying who otherwise wouldn't is to slow the rate of infections down - even if total numbers wind up being the same over time.

I’d be thrilled to have anyone tell me I was wrong 2 weeks from now. Just do me a favor and make sure you’ve got a little bit of extra food in your pantry for when you’re right.

NBA just suspended its season after Rudy Gomert tested positive. Trump announced travel ban from Europe for 30 days. The average American may begin to take this more seriously. I’d avoid checking your 401k, but I expect we’re going to see circuit breakers tripped in the markets tomorrow.

People really suck at understanding exponential math. But yes, taking precautions to flatten the curve by social distancing and other measures will hopefully keep systems from becoming overwhelmed. Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the US (3.18/1000 as opposed to 2.77/1000). Japan and South Korea - which are the only countries thus far to actually change the slope of their curve have 12-13/1000.

The World Health Organization has just classified this outbreak as a pandemic: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020 13-fold increase in the last two weeks in cases outside of China. 118,000 documented case. 4,291 lost lives so far. I'm sure some of you will discount the WHO for whatever reason they don't always reflect your political worldview. Fine. But, read this as the warning light on the panel going red. Some of y'all have tens of thousands of rounds set aside for a proverbial zombie apocalypse or whatever. Don't discount this. Take the time now - while it's feasible to make sure you're squared away for a few days/weeks. Check on people close to you. As a person of faith - this is a great time to really think about, "who is my neighbor?"

I hope I’m wrong about this - but I believe data. And this data - while almost certainly underreported in communities so far - is damning. We could be in a world of hurt in a week or two - and some folks would still swear that’s it’s a liberal plot. Take a look at an Italian paper - I’ve posted the links here to translated versions: https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=2&hl=en&nv=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=it&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.repubblica.it/&usg=ALkJrhgCwm0UJj3GAySvDUO0KX16FVYgrg If we wind up where the data suggests, in a week people will be asking why “the media” didn’t take it more seriously. And certainly they have some culpability in trying to fill airtime with talking heads instead of experts. Just remember when Noah built the ark...

I don't know what kind of doctor Dr. Mike is, but I'd sure watch a video on his skin care regimen.

It's almost certainly the case that more people have had it than have been tested/reported. We'll only know looking back what the actual morbidity/mortality numbers really shape up to be. But, right now we see that it presents as particularly dangerous to older folks with underlying medical conditions.

I’m going to hide the above post. I was hoping this thread wouldn’t go straight to conspiracy theory - simply because it will distract from needed focus to respond and prepare adequately. It’s worth noting that the Wuhan Institute was the first to identify and upload the DNA of the virus last year for public study. And, the Financial Times has published peer reviewed epidemiology studies showing no genetic mutations - meaning the strains of this virus have evolved naturally and have not been modified/weaponized in a lab.

In any disease case, it's always interesting to look at the numbers. There is so much speculation amongst our political class and the media - the first wants to protect their jobs, and the second needs something to fill the airwaves. It's hard to know what to trust - but the data rarely lies. There's still so much we don't know, but the following chart would indicate that the US(the first largest economy in the world) are on the same path as Italy(the eighth largest economy in the world) - just about 11.5 days behind. Also note the presence of Germany, France, the UK, and Spain (fourth, seventh, sixth, and thirteenth respectively.) A week is not much time affect the slope of an exponential curve. By the end of next week - Friday or Saturday - we could be looking at serious restrictions to combat community transmission. This isn't a time to panic - but you know when Noah built the ark? Before it started raining. It's probably worth making sure you've got a little bit extra set aside. If you have underlying health issues - especially COPD or other respiratory conditions - maybe a little more. Think about being in close contact with large groups. Wash your hands.

The 2 stage trigger on the P99 AS was ahead of its time and was and is a truly great trigger.

Make sure to post pictures of the boat

Just don’t go trading your guns for women. They have a word for that.

Life is really short. if it brings you joy, trade the guns. They say you can’t buy happiness, but I bet the guy who said that never bought a jet ski. Or was the only guy on the lake on a glassy morning as the fog lifts. Or pulled kids from dawn to dusk on tubes with their friends. Or set out and watched land disappear over the horizon. Or whatever. Have fun.