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Everything posted by MacGyver
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I don’t know that there’s ever been another gun store in Tennessee that understood marketing as well as Joe did. Man that’s a hard business.
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Sometimes I wonder if Memphis is sandbagging on its own reputation - sort of Br'er Rabbit style? "No, Memphis is horrible. You wouldn't want to move there. It's a pit." They might be onto something.
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Nashville is full. They’ve got to go somewhere.
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Question about selecting good fishing spots
MacGyver replied to East_TN_Patriot's topic in Hunting and Fishing
I heard from him last week - holed up wherever he is these days. Seems to be doing alright. Don't know what his connectivity looks like out there. -
Question about selecting good fishing spots
MacGyver replied to East_TN_Patriot's topic in Hunting and Fishing
Yep. If you’re trout fishing in Tennessee don’t cast a side eye at some canned corn on your hook, either. -
If it’s any indication of how seriously people should take this - John Prine and Joe Diffie are good examples. I don’t know that either of them are particularly rich - but they’re both certainly famous. Rich and famous folks get treated differently. They have other options that aren’t available to you and me. The fact that they’re dying from this ought to be a clue that everything is broken. Man, I hope John Prine pulls through. He’s brought me a lot of joy through the years. I’ve seen him at Baja Burrito and other places around town over the years. He always seemed to have a smile or kind word for folks who were wondering if that was John Prine.
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Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat
Yeah, it's interesting how all of this might present differently in a rural area. I know Lascassas is close to Murfreesboro - but may be just far enough that it doesn't get the attention bigger stores might get. -
Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat
I was listening to a food logistics person speak yesterday, and he made an interesting point about food distribution. There's plenty of food. The problem is that up until last week, Americans consumed more than half of their food in restaurants. So, now grocery stores are trying to sell more than twice as much food because people who were consuming half their meals out are now trying to cook at home. The grocery model wasn't built for that kind of volume so you've got people working around the clock. The stores near me here in South Nashville have been well stocked. The butchers at Publix are earning their money. The other interesting point that the logistics guy made was that the restaurant supply companies are trying to figure out a way to get their stuff to consumers now that no restaurants are buying food. I know we've got some logistics folks on here - I'd be interested in what you're seeing/hearing professionally. -
Thanks for sharing that. That's a good dashboard.
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That same friend taught me that, "the best navigators are never completely sure about where they are - but they're always aware of the uncertainty." Meaning - models are just that - models. We know they're wrong - but they might still be useful. Problems arise when people point to the models as truth - without knowledge about the uncertainty underlying the assumptions. Anyway. Y'all hunker down. Wash your hands. Stay home if your job will let you. Take the time to enjoy your people. And, don't forget to take a look around. You're going to see some of what makes America truly great as people and industries come together to innovate.
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As an old friend taught me a long time ago, “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.” We've still got a lot of unknowns here - and they’ll likely not be known until we’ll after this current crisis is done.
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Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat
No, that number doesn’t include contractors or 1099 folks. Several state systems spent good portions of the week down last week due to crashing from demand. For reference - and this number wasn’t wholly representative then either - peak Great Recession saw about 8 million out of work - but that was accumulated over more than a year. -
There's already evidence that shelter in place may be working in New York City. They've gone from hospitalizations doubling every 2 days to hospitalizations doubling every 4.7 days in less than a week. We're still a long way from the peak there - but that's good news no matter how you look at it.
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Interesting graphs of this morning’s jobless claims: or, graphed against the Great Recession:
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Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat
3.2 million first time jobless claims last week. That’s a giant number - and way larger than expected. -
Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat
The math is the truth. Here it is: • Jan. 14 — 0 • Jan. 21 — 1 • Jan. 28 — 5 • Feb. 4 — 11 • Feb. 11 — 14 • Feb. 18 — 25 • Feb. 25 — 59 • Mar. 3 — 125 • Mar. 10 — 1,004 • Mar. 17 — 5,902 • Mar. 24 — 53,478 These are confirmed cases as of each Tuesday here in America. Notice a pattern? There are still a bunch of unknowns. We don’t know if mortality here will rival Italy’s. There are a lot of variables. People smoke there a lot more than here. They have more ICU beds per capita than we do. Who knows? We won’t until we have time to look back. But, on the track we’re on - unless you see those numbers start to go the other way - I expect that by the end of next month - this will rival a war we’ve not seen in a few generations in terms of casualties. Everyone is likely to know someone who has died. We’re still screwing around playing partisan games and trying to assign blame instead of focusing on scaling testing. That’s the only thing that’s going that is going to let us start fighting effectively. -
I’ve got an older cousin who will get out of the hospital today. She contracted it early through an unknown source. She’s been in the hospital for 9 days.
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And y’all wonder why there’s a run on toilet paper...
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Man, I was thinking about you guys earlier today. Prayers for sure.
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I kind of appreciate a spammer that puts the work in.
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Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat
Picture a third of GDP. Or maybe you’d rather picture roughly 9 Bush/Obama era TARP programs put together? -
Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat
Four of us got together last Saturday and recorded our service in an empty church building. Prayers, readings, sermon, communion meditation, even announcements at the end. We take communion every week, so we got families communion stuff on Saturday if they needed it. Our family sat in the living room and listened and took communion together. Would I have rather been at church? Yes. But, it worked okay. We’ll celebrate when we’re together as a church again. But until then we’ll do the best we can. If anyone needs help trying to pull this off, give me a shout. Happy to help. -
Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat
Somebody better call Bill Lee then - he just closed schools through the 24th. No church wants to be like the one here in Nashville with 15 cases and counting. I’ll be the first to admit that I dearly miss our people - but pastorally don’t see how we can put them at risk. We’re having to get creative - and it’s less than ideal - but it’s the right thing to do. -
Oh man, that’s great to hear!
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Coronavirus: The cure can’t be worse than the problem!
MacGyver replied to DaveTN's topic in General Chat