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Everything posted by Oh Shoot
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Well, I hadn't been inside of a building other than my own digs for 41 days until yesterday. I could have gone another 2 or 3 weeks and still have been eating pretty well but I was out of lots of favs, fresh veggies, munchies, and whatnot. But I mainly went ahead on a stock up because I'm thinking things may again get quite "interesting" toward the end of May and beyond. I hit the Tuesday Morning Geezer Session at Sam's. I doubt there were more than 30 of us in the entire store, makes ya feel kinda special in an eerie way. Pretty amazing what they have and what they don't. As expected, meat was only about 1/3 of normal stock, with a one per on lots of meat items. But still plenty enough meat variety to stock up the freezer again, albeit at higher prices. But some stuff still MIA, like paper towels and toilet paper, pretty much expected, seems they get stocks on the mega bundles every few days, which apparently lasts a couple hours. Other absences a bit more mysterious, like butter of all things, birdseed, and whatnot. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE was masked. So I braved Wally's next door mainly for inferior birdseed, a few fishing tackle items (been walking down to the river some to wet a line since the shootin range has been closed), and did a quick tour through the food section. Amazingly well stocked, it seemed to me. picked up some unfulfilled items on the list. Again, I don't recall seeing ANYbody not wearing a mask. Then later in the day, my third trip, to Kroger to pick up remaining needs, mostly fresh veggies/fruit, canned goods, and cheap dopes. Pretty crowded for a Tuesday (was about noon by then), but what surprised me was that about a fourth of the crowd was NOT masked. So, anyway, I'm prepared to re-sequester for at least 60 days if it seems prudent, we'll see. You'll note that nationwide, the confirmed infections are still on the increase, and Monday was the highest death day yet. TN had 248/13 btw. So we'll see what the first 30 days of "reopening" does around the country, and of course especially here in Tennersee. - OS
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What an FFL correctly or incorrectly marks on a 4473 does not ultimately determine the legal classification of a firearm, nor the legality of any given future configuration of it. - OS
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Ah, detailed explanation in their update notes section: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
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IHME database belatedly just updated. It is MUCH less dire than previous, for example overall US death prediction by August fell by 12,000 and TN went from 3422 to 587! This "assuming full social distancing through May 2020". Wow! More light at the end of a shorter tunnel? This is supposed to be based on actual statistical data trends, but almost wonder if they found a big flaw in the model or something? edit: oh yeah, the URL again: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - OS
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Wow, DJT is a highway construction engineer too, explains how it's done all wrong. Who knew? - OS
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We don't have any idea how many people have been infected with the virus, and hence the exact death % compared to total infection. ??? 2.5% of our entire population is over 8 million. - OS
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- First of all, we have no idea what the tally will be by the end of the year. Last projection from IHME is 93K by early August. - Whether Covid 19 "goes away" by then is anybody's guess. It could, and then come back in the fall and kick ass even worse (as did the Spanish flu in 1918. It could be that as soon as social distancing is relaxed, it could get worse again at any time. - As Erik pointed out, it's the concentration of cases here and there that is so different. Pig shyte ain't a problem for example, indeed is even helpful as a fertilizer, but when a bizzilion gallons of it stored in NC holding pits is released due to a hurricane into streams and ground water, it becomes a big problem. When localized individual health systems are overwhelmed, the death rate becomes higher, there's less overall quality of care for the normal flow of other maladies, etc, so death count of those mount also. - Covid 19 is not a form of influenza, and that brings up a number of "ifs". We don't know for sure if people can get reinfected after kicking it. If so, is it complete immunity, partial with reduced symptoms or what? If complete immunity, how long does it last? Etc. There is some evidence emerging that many victims are left with compromised respiratory systems after recovering, which if true will only lead to ongoing health problems down the road. - And overall, there's still a lot of mystery about this virus. Why do some young people, just like the elderly, suddenly crash and die within just a few days after seemingly getting over nothing worse than a mild flu infection? Will it mutate? If so, will it mutate to a less or more lethal form? It seems to be more contagious than any seasonal flu in the last 90 years or so. Etc etc. The only sure thing is that we honestly don't know what's going to happen. The only sure thing is that all bets are off until a vaccine can be developed and distributed. All we know is that it's BAD, and we're looking at likelihood of it being just as BAD, or WORSE, for another year or more. The uncertainly as to severity, duration, and overall effects is what makes it so much more scary than any influenza season in the last 90 years or more. - OS
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Starts at the top in this case. Just a sample off top o my bean, as every day brings out some major waffle. "Not a problem, only 15 cases, will magically disappear, just the flu -- lots of death in next couple weeks" "Well take care of you -- actually, it's the states' responsibility". "If you want a test, you can get a test" "Wearing a mask may help -- no I'm not going to wear one. " "I take no responsibility", the buck stops everywhere else. DJT was pounding the "we've got to get back to work" theme today. Not even a nod to the continuation of isolation that all the medicos keep stressing. One eye on "his" NYSE and reelection obviously. Sort of like the nurse in postop saying "race you to the entrance!" - OS
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Thanks bro, really appreciate it, and I will holler if necessary. But I should be just fine. I'll run out of odds and ends, but that's far from being in need. I've got both a doc and dentist appointment on the week of the 13th, neither pressing. I'm curious to see if they are gonna nix them before I do. - OS
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Like, you and Brian Kemp were the only two people in America who didn't know this? - OS
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I've got various of the "doomsday" 25-year type food products I've picked up over time, different sizes, couple of 3 monthers, couple 1 montherss, various 1 week and 72 hour small ones. Bleah, hope to never have to use them. Several stashes of canned (veggie/meat/whatnot) and dry goods (pasta/beans/rice/whatnot) stashed here and there. Since I cook, and seldom eat out or grab fast food to go, the fridge stays relatively full. Plus, even though it's just a normal size fridge, the freezer also stays pretty well stocked all the time almost all with meat, and that's the main base for month's worth of good eating right there, before I'd have to start digging into the less palatable stuff. My normal routine is a Sam's run every 6 or 8 weeks for some bulk stuff but mostly meat, and then frequent on foot jaunts to Kroger and local fresh veggie market for odds and ends throughout that stint. I'm hunkered down for April, and my bestest tasting stash will be mostly gone by then, so I'll have to decide whether a run to the stores will be advisable or not in May. We'll see. - OS
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doubletap
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Just announced. Not till May. ACH transfers start in a couple of weeks or so. - OS
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Can you get to it if the power dies? - OS
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I've been a "minimal" survivalist for a good while now. As a townie, in an apartment. Just me. Assuming the water supply hangs in there, I can shut the door and not open it for at least 9 months. (only have 2-3 months water stored). Idea is that if the big balloon ever goes up, I can at least hang out for a while to see if life's still worth living in the aftermath of whatever would cause that. Assuming I don't get overrun by bad bipeds. This isn't that, but it will do till that comes. My last "close" contact with people was at Kroger on the 24th. I don't expect to do any more of that till May. Maybe longer, we'll see. Ain't skeered, just don't see a lot of reason for "mostly" social distancing since I can easily do it totally for a good while. - OS
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I'm a minimalist survivalist, but I can shut the door and not open it for at about 9 months or so if necessary, assuming the water supply remains okay. And that's from an apartment! - OS
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Hmmm...interesting, stats revised now. All less dire. Peak predicted earlier. Peak of infections: Apr 19 Hospital Bed Shortage: 7,133 ICU Bed Shortage: 1,672 Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in Tennessee: 3,259 - OS
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Agree totally, but I do give IHME and Fauci more than a modicum of respect. And up till recently, Birx, but her recent Trump Toady now casts some doubt. Hopefully, she was just stroking him in the useful idiot type way that many world leaders have. - OS
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I'm reminded of No Country for Old Men: Just how dangerous is he?" "Compared to what? The bubonic plague?" - OS
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Grim prediction stats indeed: IHME (same modeling source White House team is relying on, charts shown during update today), projects for TENNESSEE: Peak of infections: Apr 26 Hospital Bed Shortage: 11,000+ ICU Bed Shortage: 2,200+ Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in Tennessee: 4,985 https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (see drop down menu by state on top of page - the way site is coded, I can't seem to do specific TN link) - OS
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Erick, ya gave me a ha ha, but I was actually serious. - OS
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Cut off the booze and there would be riots. - OS
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I know. But seems we have at least a year more to go to see if this 100K estimate is accurate. - OS
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Why are you thinking in terms of three weeks? - OS
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Nope, not a death "rate", just total compared to whole population, just a simple actuarial, same as number of gun owners, women, whatever. Totally unhelpful in assessing risk or mediation in any given smaller geographical sample, including countries of different sizes where x millions are confined to smaller land areas, etc. but just another finger on the pulse so to speak. Anyway you look at it, if the 100K estimate is anywhere in the ballpark, overall we're look about about 50x more dead folks than now. Interesting comparisons here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries - OS