So who isn't really worried about the current shortage of stuff?

[plank white]

Definatly wish I had some more 223 we blew through a case before this crackheadedness happened and even though it was cheap steel I am kind of regretting that move wish I had more .22 LR aswell but when the prices drop and stuff becomes available again I will restock ........Thinking about buying an odd caliber weapon just to have I have always figured it best to have the same type of ammo and guns as everyone else because it would always be available ...This sure proved me wrong on that thought seems I can find nothing but Odd calibers right now.

Edited January 13, 2013 by plank white

[runco]

No panic here, but I did get caught without reloading supplies.  I have always wanted to reload, but could never justifiy it through the prisim of cost, but easily justifed through the prism of just having the ability to reload.  I have acquired everything I need without paying any premium, its just been a long  due dilligence in search and find though. 

[mav]

This is my theory on how everything pans out.  I am betting that nothing of any real significance will happen with firearms this year.  We right now we have unprecedented demand.  If you talk to dealers they will tell you that they have never experienced anything like it.  They claim that now is nothing like 94 or 08.

 

As people begin to realize that nothing is going to happen demand will start to wane.  Since a lot of people have stocked up either before or during bubble, it will be some time before they need or want anything else.  Therefore, dealers will probably drop prices below normal to entice buyers to help move inventory from their now replenished shelves.  Individuals that have come upon hard times or just need some extra spending money will be forced to compete with the new price in order to sell their goods, which could depress prices further.

 

If  am right, I expect that in late summer/early fall there will be really goods deals available.  If I am wrong, who knows what things will be like.  Anyway, if we can make it through this year with nothing really happening, I think it will be a while before something like this comes up again.  2014 is an election year, and politicians are not gonna risk their seat by voting the wrong way on such a hot button issue.

Edited January 13, 2013 by mav

[Oh Shoot]

I'm fine "currently". I don't know if I'll be currently fine in three months though,  as I ain't touching my billion round stash (heh heh, everybody thinks DHS bought that).

 

- OS

Edited January 13, 2013 by Oh Shoot

[Guest Lester Weevils]

It sure looks like the price of everything gun related is now controlled by what and when any random individual insane idiot decides to do an insane idiotic thing, which can happen tomorrow as easily as any random time in the future. The butterfly effect?

Edited January 13, 2013 by Lester Weevils

[Major Kong]

I got hit fairly hard by the 08/09 scare so I've been buying a little bit here and there for the last few years. I'm not stressed to buy anything but I have cut back on my shooting a little bit until all of this foolishness settles down.

[dlm37015]

what me worry

[vontar]

I'm fine "currently". I don't know if I'll be currently fine in three months though,  as I ain't touching my billion round stash (heh heh, everybody thinks DHS bought that).

 

- OS

 

Well I wasn't going to say anything but everyone that thought NOAA brought up a ton of ammo.  That was me, I was going by the handle Rainman to throw them off.

[Stegall Law Firm]

I'm fine with what I've got and will be fine for a while with my casual shooting frequency. stocked up slowly and steadily the past few years, then turned it up a good bit in the fall which was good timing. Not buying anything at these prices.

One thing I've learned from this is that things can change so dramatically and quickly it'll make your head spin. We had two years of relatively stable prices and plentiful supply of guns, mags and ammo, then bam! All gone in a week. Next time it could be oil or food.

[Sam1]

Am still stocking up on reloading supplies, but not too concerned about the shortage. Seems to be hitting the 5.56 people mostly, and we have had no issues getting other types

[daddyo]

Not gonna worry about something over which I have no control. For the time being, I have what I need.

[Electric B]

I learned my lesson in 08.

[Erik88]

No worries here but I would like another clip or two for the G19.

 

When did you buy a Glock 19? I knew you had the gen 2 23.

 

Which generation did you get?

[Erik88]

Until I'm sitting on thousands upon thousands of rounds for each caliber I own and a few dozen magazines for each gun I won't feel "fine". 

 

Right now I'm focusing on increasing my stash of .22LR(I only have a few bricks) and finding a decent deal on .223/5.56. I'd also like to find a few more 25 round clips for my Ruger 10/22.

 

Considering trading my Glock 23 for another G19 so I can eliminate one caliber from my rotation. I'm up to 4 different handgun calibers which is more than I would like.

[Erik88]

One thing I forgot to mention, if you are hoping to find a specific caliber/brand of ammo at Wal-Mart you can hop on their website and sign up for emails when that product comes back in stock at the Wal-Mart you visit.

[Keyless]

I always keep more than I need . Prepare for the worst and hope for the best . When the first ban was lifted it was time to start stocking up. New rifle = get plenty of mags then , later may be too late .

[1gewehr]

Not really worried.  This is basic supply and demand.

On the supply side:  At the NRA convention, all of the AR manufacturers were working at 100% capacity trying to catch up with existing orders.  They also knew that the election would cause a large demand, so they were prepared to continue producing at high levels for a long time.  So, production of ARs has never been higher.  Well over a million per year.  Because of that, and possible legislation, nobody really wants to spend a lot of capital to expand capacity.

On the demand side.  At some point, everyone who wants an AR and has any money will have one.  Demand will start to slacken off.  When inventories start to rise, price will drop.

 

Frankly, I figure it will take a year for inventories and prices to normalize.  Prices will NEVER get back down to where they were a year ago because of inflation.  Contrary to the claims of the Feds, inflation is currently running somewhere between 6-10% per year. that means that next October, that $100 AR lower you could have bought before the election will cost $110 just because the dollars are worth less.

 

Ammo takes longer to normalize due to the way it is produced.  To keep costs down, most manufacturers only make one batch of a particular load each year.  So if you are a big fan of Remington Golden Saber 124gr 9mm, it may take a year before Remington makes any more.  Typically, the sales on ammo you used to see were stocks that were a year old and trying to be sold before new stocks hit the inventory.  I would imagine that manufacturers will be making longer runs of popular loads like 9mm 115gr ball, and 5.56mm 55 and 62gr.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

[gregintenn]

I'm not really concerned about the shortage, but I do find it aggravating to go to a store for something and see a bare shelf. What is going to be interesting is when something happens that causes a food shortage like this. I don't believe the population in general will be as patient and understanding as the shooting community.

 

I don't really understand why companies keep unveiling new models when they can't keep up producing existing models.

Edited January 13, 2013 by gregintenn

[Sam1]

market saturation

[mcurrier]

[quote name="Erik88" post="883597" timestamp="1358086877"]One thing I forgot to mention, if you are hoping to find a specific caliber/brand of ammo at Wal-Mart you can hop on their website and sign up for emails when that product comes back in stock at the Wal-Mart you visit.[/quote]True. However... the way that their email notification system works... I originally thought that their system would initiate an email alert when new stock was scanned into their system as it was unloaded upon delivery to each location. The manager of the Sporting Goods dept. told me that the emails would not go out until their system updated at midnight on the day of receiving the delivery. Stock would already be gone within minutes or hours of delivery, so the email alert would reach the customer too late anyhow. Inventory would be deducted in the local system as it was sold, and by midnight there would most likely be no stock remaining, thus no email alerts would go out.

[BC in TN]

I believe the current panic is great for the shooting industry and our economy.  However, reasonable prudence should be used - it is likely not a good move to purchase guns/ammo with a credit card.  As stated earlier in this post, a good stratgegy is to plan for the worst.  This current crisis causes good discussion and should generate reasonable citizens' interest in our current state of affairs. 

 

Get up early and stay up late - Work hard! Everything will be okay.