odds of being held up in an armed robbery?

[Guest supergus]

I was just wondering if anybody had a resource for statistics and odds on armed robberies and home invasions. The next time someone questions my decision to carry, I'd like to be able to argue "you have a greater chance of being (held up) (the victim of a home invasion) etc. than you are being in a car accident, but you still wear a seatbelt just in case..."

[jgrauman]

don't know about the stats, but you can always say, "the next time we're at the mall together, i want to be able to defend BOTH our lives."

[Guest JCE]

If just reading the news won't convince them, I doubt if statistics will either

[Guest supergus]

Good point. I suppose I should add that to my list of things I won't talk about with friends. 1. religion

2. politics

3. abortion

And now 4. RTKBA.

[The Rabbi]

I was just wondering if anybody had a resource for statistics and odds on armed robberies and home invasions. The next time someone questions my decision to carry, I'd like to be able to argue "you have a greater chance of being (held up) (the victim of a home invasion) etc. than you are being in a car accident, but you still wear a seatbelt just in case..."

You have a much much greater chance of being in a car accident than of being held up. If you are a middle-class white man your chances of being in an armed encounter are very small. That isn't a reason not to carry, but don't try to use it to persuade people.

[Mike.357]

Whether the odds are small or large is not important. Should you be the victim of an armed robbery the odds greatly increase that you or a loved one will be significantly harmed. By that I mean as opposed to not be a victim of an armed robbery.

Think of carrying a gun for self defense as a small chance you will need it, but a very good chance it would greatly impact your life should it happen. What are the odds you will be in a car wreck? Very small I am guessing but we still wear seatbelts and have insurance just in case.

[Guest 270win]

Statistically you have a greater chance of being in a car accident than being in an armed encounter IF you stay in decent areas of a large city or live in a small town that is pretty homogenous (not much poverty, plenty of jobs, not many illegal drug users). It is very important to wear a seat belt, knowing from experience.

If you frequent bad areas of large cities, especially at night, carry money, medicines (doctor, pharmacist), deal in jewels or other valuables, then your chances of a bad encounter with scum increases. If you have some physical disability, then your ability to defend yourself from harm goes down without an equalizer.

The best defense you have is right between your ears and that is your brain. Awareness and trying to take precautions greatly lessens the chance of being in a bad situation. Even when trying such, i'd still like to be able to protect myself, kind of like wearing a seat belt.

[Im Neero]

As Rabbi pointed out, you are more likely to be in a car accident. Statistics are a funny thing, you can make them say pretty much anything you want. Google shows that there are around 6.2 million car accidents each year, the FBI says about 1.3 million violent crimes. If you narrow down the number of car accidents to fatal accidents, then the number shrinks to 42,636 still vs 1.3 million violent crimes. You could fudge and add in an estimate of how many violent crimes are prevented by being armed and have a very impressive if wholly truthful statistic without actually lying.

I carry for the same reason that I get out of swimming pools during a lightning storm; in a cost to benefit analysis I see very little cost and a very unlikely but enormous benefit. I haven't heard a good argument yet as to why I shouldn't carry, so until then, I'll continue to do so.

[Guest clutepc]

Whether the odds are small or large is not important. Should you be the victim of an armed robbery the odds greatly increase that you or a loved one will be significantly harmed. By that I mean as opposed to not be a victim of an armed robbery.

Think of carrying a gun for self defense as a small chance you will need it, but a very good chance it would greatly impact your life should it happen. What are the odds you will be in a car wreck? Very small I am guessing but we still wear seatbelts and have insurance just in case.

Good point!!

Something to remember then next time I'm asked why I want to carry or even own a gun for that matter..

[Guest Mugster]

There's this:

http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm

I dunno how accurate it is, but they say the odds of being a victim of a serious crime in your lifetime are 1 in 20, although only 1 in 18000 chance of getting murdered. About the same chance as dying in a serious car wreck.

There's also this for crime rates in tn. They have instant check info as well:

http://www.tbi.state.tn.us/divisions/isd_csu_sac.htm

[strickj]

this has never been a problem for me.when someone ask"why do you feel the need to have a gun" I say

"you have a greater chance of being (held up) (the victim of a home invasion) etc. than you are being in a car accident, but you still wear a seatbelt just in case..."

almost word for word.and being the victim of a motorcycle wreck leaving me in a chair,it shuts them up!

[DaveTN]

As Mike pointed out the odds don’t matter.

If they do….

What are odds of surviving an armed robbery if you are unarmed vs. the odds of surviving it if you pull a weapon?

I’m absolutely sure I know the answer to that question, but I would still like to be armed.

[Guest bulletproof]

I got tired of giving reasons a long time ago. Now when someone asks why I have a gun I just say "Why wouldn't I have a gun?" and walk off.

[Guest supergus]

All very good points! I guess it doesn't really matter what anyone else thinks; I just was hoping to have that real stinger of a response to shut 'em up, but I guess if someone really doesn't believe in carrying or owning firearms, you'll never convince them otherwise.

[Guest ms.rogers]

Well, you could always use that whole car thing anyway, they say 90% of statistics are made up on the spot anyway. I can understand having to explain yourself though. My husband is against me having one as well until I made him start watching the news..people are killed in the nashville area daily. some of them in broad day light for little or reason.

[Guest db99wj]

I like towers sig line, " I carry a gun cause a cop is too heavy."

[strickj]

My husband is against me having one

usually the other way around:pleased:

[Guest Boomhower]

I like towers sig line, "I carry a gun cause a cop is too heavy."

Yeah, I do too. I hope I can remember that one the next time someone poke's fun at me.

usually the other way around:pleased:

I was thinking the very same thing. Pretty cool that the tables are turned, but it also sucks. Maybe she can convince her husband to get on board too. The more, the merrier.

[Guest jcoyle6]

Just another photo courtesy of Oleg Volk. (too bad it was made with a wheel gun:stir:

Ha ha I crack myself up sometimes)

Officer response to seeing Bteague2 at a Mapco at 0130, "Why do you carry a gun, son?"

Teague responds, "Because I am lawfully allowed to do so...."

I just kept my mouth shut and my cover garment on. That was a fun night, and a cool cop.

[Guest CrazyLincoln]

I got tired of giving reasons a long time ago. Now when someone asks why I have a gun I just say "Why wouldn't I have a gun?" and walk off.

Better answer. Why don't YOU have a gun!?!?

[The Rabbi]

"Because I can" seems like all the reason anyone would need. I like to encourage people to get carry permits even if they don't intend on carrying simply because the more people who do, the more ingrained that right becomes and the less likely it is that someone can take it away.

[Bigiron]

I simply reply: For insurance. Wife was robbed last year in our garage, while I was at work. Took two calls to police who took more than an hour to respond. Was never investigated. Yes, I carry 24/7.

[molonlabetn]

Here's an excellent resource: http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm

[shaftbass]

I use the life insurance argument. Someone might say your chances of getting robbed or carjacked are very low, so why carry the gun? I just say, why do you have life insurance since chances are you won't die till you are very old? "That makes sense" is a common reply.

[The Rabbi]

And yet most people don't have life insurance. Or they have too little. Or they have too much.